Keeping Score Growing Complexity for Cooperstown
 

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Sean Forman is the creator of Baseball-Reference.com, an online baseball encyclopedia of players, teams and box scores in the major and minor leagues.
As evidenced by McGwire, a quarter of the electorate will ignore the steroid issue. I believe that another quarter will vote for players deemed to have been Hall of Famers without steroids. This half of the voters (call them the steroid ignorers) will vote for the players with steroid clouds, and the players perceived to be clean but with lesser accomplishments will be pushed from their ballots. The other half of the voters (call them the steroid zealots) will vote for the second group but not the first, meaning that everyone is stuck at 50 percent and no one gets in.
Additionally, the pace of player induction has been slowing over the past decade despite league expansion and lengthening player careers. Between the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and the various veterans committees,Wholesale San Diego Padres Hats, just 23 players have been inducted in 11 years, compared with 36, 30 and 30 in the three previous decades.
In 2013, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza,DC Comics & Marvel Hats, Sammy Sosa,Monster Energy Hats, Curt Schilling and Craig Biggio become eligible for induction, along with an estimated 10 holdover candidates who previously drew 20 percent to 70 percent of the vote. Given the steroid discussions around many of these players, and especially the federal perjury charges against Bonds and Clemens, I believe none of them will be elected on their first try.
Second, the steroid cloud is holding back candidates whose statistics would normally be good enough to gain induction. Mark McGwire and his 583 home runs have yet to crack the 25 percent barrier in four elections.
SRS combines the average margin of victory and strength of schedule to determine number of runs per game better than an average team each team is.
There are multiple reasons for the slowing pace. First, the writers are holding players to a higher standard. Bert Blyleven — with career ranks of 27th in victories, 5th in strikeouts and 9th in shutouts — is still waiting for induction in his 14th year on the ballot.
SRS combines the average margin of victory and strength of schedule to determine number of runs per game better than an average team each team is.
2010 Total Zone Defensive Runs Saves Player
Team
POS
TZ Justin Upton
ARI
RF
22 Angel Pagan
NYM
OF
21 Michael Bourn
HOU
CF
18 Aubrey Huff
SFG
1B-OF
18 Shin-Soo Choo
CLE
RF
13 Jose Lopez
SEA
3B
12 Drew Stubbs
CIN
CF
12 Evan Longoria
TBR
3B
12 Yadier Molina
STL
C
12 Juan Pierre
CHW
LF
12
Third,New York Mets Hats, a cultural shift in candidate evaluation is taking place. Writers raised on the teachings of Bill James are pushing players like Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell and
Tim Raines up the ballot, while more traditional voters are keeping Jack Morris at 50 percent and pushing less sabermetrically popular candidates like Andre Dawson,Winter caps Hats, Tony Perez and Jim Rice over the top.

ERA+ is the pitchers park-neutral E.R.A. relative to the league. Above 100 is better than average and below 100 is worse.
In 1938, more than 50 eventual Hall of Famers received votes, but just one, Pete Alexander, received the 75 percent of votes necessary for induction. In 1945 and 1946,cheap Milwaukee Brewers Hats, after a break in voting because of World War II, the top 28 vote-getters were all eventually inducted,Wholesale Monster Energy Hats, but the vote was divided among so many qualified players that not one reached the 75 percent threshold needed for induction in either year. To break this logjam, the Hall of Fame convened an old-timers committee,Wholesale Los Angeles Dodgers Hats, which selected 30 individuals,http://www.iblog.dk/blog.php?user=8i...7f&note=354389, and cleared the ballot enough so that in 1947 the writers managed to induct four players.
Given the historical maximum of a 15 percent increase, Barry Larkin, Lee Smith and Morris, who in 2010 all drew about 50 percent,Cheap Oakland Athletics Hats, would need unprecedented increases to gain election by 2012. The writers might move these candidates or a 2011 addition like Bagwell over 75 percent in 2012. If they don’t (and I don’t think they will), none will be elected soon, as a tidal wave of candidates arrives the next year.
Ana Martinez/Reuters Based on past voting patterns, Roberto Alomar,Boston Red Sox Hats, above,Rockstar Hats, and Bert Blyleven appear likely to gain induction to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2011. A.L. Simple Rating System (Through Wed.) Team
W-L
Runs to Avg. NYY
74-46
1.3 TBR
74-46
1.3 MIN
70-50
0.9 BOS
69-52
0.8 TEX
67-52
0.6 TOR
63-57
0.5 CHW
65-55
0.4 OAK
59-60
0.2 LAA
60-61
-0.1 DET
58-62
-0.3
To see where the gridlock is likely to come,Cheap The Hundreds Hats, let’s map out the ballot for the next few years. In 2011,new era 59fifty hats, Blyleven and Roberto Alomar appear likely to gain induction. New candidates include Rafael Palmeiro, who will likely make his debut in McGwire’s neighborhood; Jeff Bagwell,wholesale Chras Bromn Hats, a strong candidate but an unlikely first-ballot selection; and such credible candidates as Larry Walker, John Franco and Kevin Brown. Bernie Williams is the only player who becomes eligible in 2012 and is likely to garner enough votes to remain on the 2013 ballot.
I suspect these voting blocs beginning to shift will reach equilibrium in the next 5 to 10 years as younger reporters begin to receive their voting privileges after their 10th year of writers’ association membership. One additional factor governs voting patterns. Over the last 20 years,DC Comics & Marvel Hats, no player has seen a year-to-year rise of more than 15 percent over his previous best showing.
Total Zone is the number of runs saved by the fielder when compared to an average fielder. It considers balls fielder, double-play turns for infielders and arms for outfielders.
2010 Batting Runs (min 3.1PA/G) Player
Team
Runs
Outs Used Miguel Cabrera
DET
53.9
303 Josh Hamilton
TEX
44.7
303 Albert Pujols
STL
43.3
329 Joey Votto
CIN
42.0
289 Justin Morneau
MIN
36.6
202 Adrian Gonzalez
SDP
36.2
322 Robinson Cano
NYY
35.7
330 Jose Bautista
TOR
35.2
326 Kevin Youkilis
BOS
31.1
261 Paul Konerko
CHW
30.4
305
Batting Runs measures the number of team runs created by the batter (through hits, walks, hit-by-pitch) relative to that of a league-average player. This is also adjusted to the park played in.
How this mess irons itself out is anyone’s guess. But if history is an indication, the induction of the recent era’s greatest stars is anything but a given.
N.L. Simple Rating System (Through Wed.) Team
W-L
Runs to Avg. ATL
71-49
0.8 SDP
72-47
0.8 PHI
68-51
0.7 STL
65-53
0.5 SFG
67-54
0.5 CIN
69-51
0.4 NYM
60-60
0.3 FLA
59-60
0.2 COL
62-57
0.2 LAD
61-60
0.0
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The National Baseball Hall of Fame’s election system is heading for a meltdown. With an abundance of qualified candidates becoming eligible and the cloud of steroid accusations and perjury indictments, the elections for the classes of 2013 and 2014 appear likely to cause the kind of Hall of Fame ballot gridlock we haven’t seen since the Hall’s creation in 1936.

The problem only becomes worse in 2014, when Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina become eligible.
2010 ERA+ (min 1 IP/G) Player
Team
ERA+
IP Adam Wainwright
STL
194
183.1 Tim Hudson
ATL
186
171.2 Clay Buchholz
BOS
185
133.1 Roy Halladay
PHI
184
193.0 Josh Johnson
FLA
182
166.2 Ubaldo Jimenez
COL
172
163.1 Trevor Cahill
OAK
164
140.2 Jon Lester
BOS
157
161.0 Mat Latos
SDP
155
135.2 Jaime Garcia
STL
155
132.1