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133647 2010 年 10 月 13 日 10:40 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
collapse or the collapse of real estate whether it is the end result is startling, when China's real estate crash? I hope that day's mercy, saying in 2014. . . . .
Press on Friday informed me this week, a printing plant will be sale, then, I informed friends. The sample book I read, too bad. I think, comrades, there are many opinions about this book. But the first time, always a bit awkward and irritable,
new balance shoes, and sometimes the climax too soon could allow the comrades do not think quickly, but no way, said, This is my first time. Here is my
1999, the Deutsche Bank Securities analyst in Hong Kong Andrew? Lawrence (Andrew Lawrence) for the first time put forward the have occurred before and after the completion of the new high-rise buildings. Liberal government policies and optimism on the economy, often to encourage the construction of major projects. However, due to excessive investment and speculation bubble in the sky is about to endanger the economy, tight monetary policies will be changed, which makes the completion of skyscrapers as the precursor of policy and economic transformation.
this astonishing discovery, known as the Therefore, the There are several examples in history is impressive: the United States, Adams House, In Chicago,
Whenever the date of completion
skyscrapers, is usually not a good sign, the first detailed inventory of high-xx real estate and economic cycles of the completion date, you will find that economic prosperity is the tombstone skyscrapers. . . .
2008 年 8 end of the City of Lujiazui in Shanghai's World Financial Center, the skyscraper is completed, officially replaced its neighbor, the former third in the world, China's first high-rise Jinmao Tower, a landmark The main body height than Taipei 101 Tower, a new world. Rare global economy in 2008 suffered a financial crisis, the Chinese economy in the second half of 2008 met with an unprecedented impact on economic growth and price indices have fallen sharply, Shenzhen and Shanghai's index fell nearly 80%! After the completion of this building within a few months, there is little good news, people gripped the market all the news. Presumably this is the Chinese people are ahead of the game.
But in fact, in 2006, market analysts have begun to use the skyscraper index, predicted that China and the world economic trend of 2008.
2006 年 2 15, global investment banking giant Lehman Brothers, one of the world economic conference held in Beijing, when Lehman Brothers, or the global financial markets all-powerful role. Llewellyn, chief global economist of its customers in China to their reference to
Llewellyn said: Forecast seriously? really Maxima often, but horses do not often ah, it seems that Lehman Brothers is also a matter of course)
later proved to Llewellyn in 2006 and forecast to determine the basic right. In 2006, the global economy and markets are under the beautiful flowers, you can judge from 2007 to 2008, market risk, this indicator actually works. Therefore, we can not be taken lightly this indicator.
2009, China's skyscrapers around the four flowering group
China just kick down the foundations of skyscrapers around it, after that there was cover it, so how, but it also can continue in years. . . . Now it is inappropriate to air. . .
Looking back now emerging financial crisis in 2008 and China's macroeconomic great diving, the end of the central introduced in 2008 and active fiscal policy, monetary easing has the arm crushed, the Chinese economy into an immediate state of excitement, gearing up in 2009 to start a new the journey of a boom cycle. As representative of the price of the cost of capital - interest rates low in early 2009, almost 30 years of reform and opening to the lowest point, so all kinds of skyscraper construction program immediately around the flower in China.
Here are the skyscrapers of China's situation in 2009-2010 started:
Shanghai Center, located in the core area of Lujiazui financial district,
new new balance shoes, the total height will reach 632 meters, making it the highest building in Shanghai and China, building on the end of November 2008 in Shanghai was officially started. In accordance with the progress of the Shanghai Center is expected in 2010 when the underground part of the Shanghai World Expo cap, cap structure, and part of 2012, put into operation, completed in 2014 delivered. [
safe international financial center under construction in October 2009, this building 588 meters high The actual height of the skyscraper will generally be at the top of the antenna, the lightning rod for a class of accessory included, Shanghai's Jinmao Tower, Taipei 101 Tower is the algorithm used, so safe the actual height of an international financial center is expected to 646 meters, more than any skyscraper domestic level. Shenzhen is now the tallest buildings under construction for the Beijing-based Financial Center,
Hope chubby little boy - Qzone log, the design height of 439 meters, a total of 98 layers, is expected to be completed in 2011. [
2010 年 4 early in Chongqing to build world's tallest twin towers, height may be more than 620 meters from the Concord Group's investment in Hong Kong, the ground floor area of 140 square meters, the project objectives in 2010 and full construction is allowed specific completion time of natural do not know. But the skyscrapers from the start to completion, if the funds are not ball dropped,
new balance running shoes, usually before and after the basic completion time in 4 years or less,
new balance 574, that is engaged in Chongqing, the world's tallest twin towers in use of time, possibly also in 2014. [V]
2010 年 3 31, Asian International Financial Tower in Guangxi Fangchenggang City, officially started construction. Height of 528 m design, a total of 109 layers of the Asian International Financial Tower in the north Bay City Central Business District of Fangchenggang, design 5-year period, upon completion, will replace the 101 in Malaysia and Taiwan, Gemini Building, the tallest building in Southeast Asia. That is the latest of the building will be completed in 2015.
2009 年 9 28, East Tower project started in Guangzhou, will build the 116 level, including some 113 ground floor, 3 floors underground,
Christmas a little unhappy - Qzone log, height will reach 530 meters, is expected to completed in 2016. After the completion of the East Tower, Guangzhou, southern China will become the new tallest building, currently under construction in hot pursuit of China's first high-rise
absolute bad luck doomed panic of 2012 and 2014
many economists and analysts sing the air in 2012, but in my opinion, the year may be the most crazy year, but also the culmination of years of economic prosperity, this year will not be a crisis, but may be the peak, the latter is a deep abyss. . . .
started all of the above is the current group of skyscrapers, the building has been able to start, because since 2009 the Chinese central bank's loose monetary policy. A lot of cheap money available in the market, the natural blood boiling to the Chinese local government, large skyscraper on the faster to the local GDP of strong color, or where government leaders from the embodied performance? But the extra money available in the market can not always cheap. Start from the date of skyscrapers, the economy began to overheat in the bud development, inflation trends began to quietly rise, the central bank and the government will start quietly monetary and fiscal tightening, and slowly tighten the money, once the completion date of skyscrapers, usually reach the peak of contraction, or was extremely tight when the trigger economic collapse.
we note the completion time of the skyscrapers in China: Shanghai Center cap in 2012, and completion time in 2014. Ping An International Finance Centre, also the date of completion is 2014, the Asian Fangchenggang City, Guangxi International Financial Building, completed in time in 2015, the Guangzhou East Tower project is completed in 2016, and the first skyscraper is completed Beijing-based Financial Center - -2011 years.
This can speculate about a timetable for China's real estate collapse: the 2011, the Chinese economy and the prosperity of the real estate industry will enter a final; 2012 fell to the ground at any time the Chinese real estate industry can not afford to be laid to the dead; And the most dangerous in 2014, is likely to face the full range of economic and real estate collapse and defeat; if the Chinese real estate industry has been quite 2014, but 2015 estimates are quite; The 2016 can be seen as the corpses of Chinese real estate industry In that time, a little spare cash on hand, and escaped the frenzied peak of the Chinese real estate people can give due consideration to entering the Chinese real estate hunters to do more.
logic behind the speculation is over: the skyscraper is a typical representative of the real estate industry, it is capital-intensive goods, only in the interest rate is extremely low, when capital is extremely cheap in order to be included in the construction business and local government programs. But in fact, significantly reduced the central bank's low interest rates, can not effectively reflect the real world the supply of goods and services so that people mistakenly believe that entering the real world is really about communism, material resources, unlimited wealth - in fact not the case. Once more tickets issued, not so much the market for goods and services, the gradual rise of inflation, the central bank had to raise interest rates sharply, people suppress the desire to expand their business. But the problem is the greed of human nature when stimulated together,
Baby shaved his head - Qzone log, lecher like to see ########## women, how to restrain the expansion of the desire is maintained? Only after the markets into utter madness, vicious inflation began to ferment, the whole community began to think more and more money is worthless, the central bank in order to maintain credit, have introduced measures to raise interest rates extremely severe, the market began to not do business, and the debt crisis began to emerge, a new round of monetary tightening since the recession began. At this time, skyscrapers almost be completed by the cap.
Yin Sheng Zeyang
decline, the anode is shade, the property market the most crazy time, usually the collapse of the Gigabit, when is the most crazy? That was when I was singing comrades swearword empty property when, in fact, very simple to put it bluntly, we all buy a house, you say down, everybody happy, the problem is to buy a house who needs it? . . .
Therefore, from extremely loose to extremely tight money the day, but also skyscrapers started to cap the date of completion. Time is often overlap between the two. Therefore, from the skyscraper completed in time, in fact, we can speculate that the central bank's monetary tightening schedule for the future: In 2010, China's central bank and government monetary policy is fine-tuning, but is estimated to begin in 2011 out macro-control; estimated that after 2012 engage in severe monetary tightening, and in 2013 to 2014, the estimated monetary tightening to the highest point, if the one year deposit rate to return to 10% in 1993,
new balance outlet, and you do not surprise. For 2015 to 2016, if the central bank was not issued strict austerity policy, then the whole of Chinese society because of hyperinflation and the disorderly, embroiled in endless turmoil and unrest among the economy could collapse because of the credit system plummeted. If before the central bank has to take stringent austerity measures - this is the high probability event, then 2016, 2015, China may be a recession, the economy entered a new round of deflation, the central bank could even start a new round of rate cuts process.
Gui beads
city pay. . . The home is not easy. . A shelter should be thankful, and why bother entangled in the high price it? And a cup of tea,
new balance sneakers, calm and more, and then very calm and more. . . Floating Life dream. . .
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