Andy Xie, a weekly financial reporters in an inter

independent economist Andy Xie, a weekly financial reporters in an interview that the impact of the credit control by the government this year, finance, real estate, IT, iron and steel industry may face four cold. But the usage is high energy, able to withstand the inflation of gold will become this year's investment.
two major problems of China's economy: real estate is too large and overcapacity
a weekly financial
: 2010 you see how the momentum of China's economic development?
Andy Xie: Economic growth should also, exports will rebound, but the investment that one would not like last year so fast; real estate will not be fast.
Overall, exports this year will be a little better, from an economic perspective, the relatively stable.
A weekly
Money: Chinese economy is the main problem is where?
Andy Xie: I think the biggest problem now is to appear in the economic structure, which is a big problem. Many of the issues related to our national structure of relations, a real estate is too large, a is the industry's excess capacity, both of which are quite obvious.
I often say that China's economic growth, in fact, means to throw money in the bank, but it depends on whether the results valid. Overheated real estate sales last year, the GDP has increased.
Now the question is, do you talk about are not important, important, our money come from? To address this issue, I think,Ten big truth, nothing more than real estate is too large, overheated. Thus began the national regulation of real estate, because the Chinese real estate where the funds are flowing, if you control the real estate, then the money will not flow out.
economy already has problems, the Government has such a regulation, if we can maintain a year, the Government's regulation of real estate may well be changes. That no one says no.
A weekly
Money: If you continue to tighten credit, then this one, capital market liquidity will be affected?
Andy Xie: Because the money is flowing out from the real estate market, real estate, a regulation, market demand, there is no immediately. And then, the bank's money will not turn out. The end result is that there are under a lot of developers we are all waiting for affiliated companies, and then wait for the new adjustment policy.
Moreover, the domestic real estate developers have become accustomed to this kind of life - basically, turn the eve of government regulation, he tried to sell the house, Shoulong funds. Over the past two years, is one such, so we do not believe government regulation is true.
China's real estate market unlike the United States, house prices rose very high at the time, you can take it through the value-added part of the mortgage banks to borrow money, but in China not be the case.
China's real estate is speculation, and said plainly, is to roll the money out of banks, the volume to the real estate market, and then roll to the local government, and eventually local government revenue. Local real estate market there is for government financing in China to buy a house, nothing different with the tax.
no better short-term stock market
a weekly financial
: more complex capital markets in 2010, for the whole year,My heart and moon Jichou, your capital market outlook?
Andy Xie: I think the short term it is not. Because China's stock market is not determined by fundamentals, it is determined by the money supply. Once the tightening of money supply, then, the stock market bad.
current domestic supply of money has not closed tight, but so far this year growth in China is still a lot of credit. Ago than it is now much less bank lending, so that now such a huge number of credit, the Government began to tense. Is because the plates do too much credit,2011 NIKE NFL football jerseys, real estate market also appears too big. The real estate market last year to invest 4 trillion yuan, up by 70%, holding up too much, you say but also how to support such a plate it?
control policy if the real estate market to maintain a year or so, that its sales could fall by about half. I figure a little, lost half of sales, then this figure is over 20,000 yuan, you think about it,nike shox r4 black, it will be out much? !
A weekly
Money: In addition to real estate, the export of this one will drive China's economy?
Andy Xie: This should be more difficult, now the U.S. unemployment rate is so high, not good in Japan, Europe and now a crisis. Exports will be very light? I do not think it possible lows. The United States fell last year, more than 6000 billion U.S. dollars in exports, shrinking tight, then a rebound this year is granted. However, no matter how exports rebound, but also less than the original bomb that high.
a weekly financial: it your view, China's future economic growth, where the breakthrough?
Andy Xie: Now there is a breakthrough in China's economic structural problems, always a thing. After the thing is to let the government come to the rescue. Therefore, the structure of the problem is not resolved, so the Chinese economy will only maintain the last few years is like this.
a weekly financial
: the initial year, the stock index futures, announced the launch of a new financial business from your personal point of view, which is what impact the stock market investments?
Andy Xie: If the stock market index futures toward which the government wants to drop the money, put forward a fund or something, I think this is possible. Generally, however, the introduction of stock index futures on the stock market should not have much impact. Because the core issue of China's stock market, or the money supply. Tightened money supply, then not like the overall stock market. Because China's stock market with very tight with money.
I think the Chinese economy to the second quarter of this year, is obviously a bad time. Because the house was sold, a series of issues will come out. Last year, local governments may be hidden a lot of money, to mix a few months. However, when the investment over a hot segment,Sometimes !, the money was not any, and government pressure will come.
Anyway, the real estate of a song, you should know that the stock market to rise, because it involves credit and the amount of problems.
bearish on four major industries
a weekly financial: Last year you own and what areas of investment this year, which sections will be invested?
Andy Xie: I have cast energy, more optimistic about it. Would also like to cast gold, but in the end did not invest it. Because gold is the concept of inflation, both the inflation, but also in short supply. In most cases, this energy is like oil every day use, but also more practical. Gold is a currency alternative, it may be not so reliable energy.
Overall, still very loose monetary policy, inflation will come. Gold, then two years is good. Gold would fire up, but also easy to fry up, but not necessarily as good as energy.
A weekly
Money: This year you are optimistic about what areas of investment?
Andy Xie: I think the stock market this year will fluctuate back and forth, as A shares fell 1,600 points from 6,000 points, then rebounded to around 3000, has been fluctuations in the curve. Has still not out of this situation.
I had more optimistic about the energy and gold, gold in the past is very expensive in China, are buying overseas. Because the concept is good, many domestic investors on the speculation for now. I fancy the energy and gold, but Hong Kong is very expensive here, the price is about twice as high.
cement growth has also been good, but some time ago due to excess capacity is very serious, this may also be, but the next two years will certainly be problems.
A weekly
Money: What do you not optimistic about this year is what areas?
Andy Xie: certainly not this year, the financial industry, banking is a financial giant, this year will certainly be a lot of additional capital allotment, plus credit to slow down the speed, cost and increased substantially, so this year's financial sector not good.
costs have risen sharply because of labor shortages in China, although the financial industry, a good salary, but it is growing to inertia. Costs to continue to rise sharply this year, will certainly rise about 20%. In addition, the Bank will continue to narrow spreads, the credit rate will not exceed 20%. In addition to go with so many new shares, banks will not be very good this year.
insurance companies with very tight with the stock market, the stock market is not good, the insurance companies are also affected. Because the domestic insurance companies are making money from stock market investments, may be under pressure this year.
This year, the property will be under pressure. Last year the property market rose so high, land is more expensive,Both her ​​husband and two life, prices are now certain to fall down. Now, secondary market prices have dropped down at the beginning.
do not change if the state policies, the real estate market will go wrong. Originally the real estate business is the expected four as housing prices rose, but now is falling house prices do not rise, then does it mean that they will be miserable. Last year bought a lot of land developers, this year's problems will be enormous.
IT, then, although the impact of technology on the economy much, but I'm not optimistic about IT, most of them are fried one, and then made a run. Things like, it becomes very successful, not successful, it becomes very bad. The technology sector companies, even if a company has done better,2011 spanish NBA basketball jerseys, there is always another company will do better than you.
like Microsoft has done such a successful company, is now beginning to reverse the trend of the. Technology stocks, it can only fry one. If the company is to create hardware unit, the more can not go in, some just do the chip is difficult to make money long-term, short term while making money, while losing money, to attract people through the volatility.
In addition, the steel industry is facing the problem of excess capacity, the steel industry hard this year, good. I saw the building steel is such a situation, the general board production capacity is surplus. And relatively high price of iron ore, and Australia's BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and merging, and iron ore prices likely to rise much larger than the possibility of falling. These I do not look good.