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137731 2010 年 11 月 29 日 22:33 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Funky Light Green from the
how to solve the problem of inflation in China rely on?
Dean of Economics, Fudan University, Professor of Finance Sun Lijian
recent government prices and working conditions at all levels of government conduct in-depth research and careful examination. Inflation control and so impatient to solve the shortage of products, work attitude, on the one hand our government today shows a high degree of sensitivity to people's livelihood and the importance of attitude, but also further reflects the complexity of the problem of inflation in China and severity, and than previous methods of management can take to be able to play effective immediately, but there is sometimes counterproductive results. Sort of rising prices in China today is the cause of the Government will adopt a
First, the continuous price rise in China today is one of the reasons is that investment-led economic growth brought about by the real needs of administrative and energy saving measures (such as power cuts, the supply of crude oil off limits for the increase in such policies) between the irreconcilable conflict. For example, the current Diesel consumption results not only failed to do so the Government had originally expected, In addition, Sinopec and PetroChina on crude oil to refining companies ration control practices, may lead to irregularities in the conduct of the market and the resulting market situation of rising oil prices. This result not only can not be controlled by the rising costs or supply to manufacturers Forced crude oil and refined oil to reduce the demand for industrial upgrading and had the effect of energy-saving technological transformation, but the resulting type of inflation,
new balance shoes, the burden of rising costs the final product onto the consumer public body. On the other hand, this also further exacerbate the burden of the cost of weakening the power of enterprise energy-saving technological transformation. So, when the lack of spending power of Chinese society that simply can not go to companies manufacturing green products offset the additional costs dramatically,
new new balance shoes, China's extensive corporate investment patterns is difficult to change, not to mention the world economy are in a downturn when the depression, like to rely on strong consumer activity to help companies in transition it is very difficult. Resources to control the supply of production for
Second, the government-led bailout combination of boxing,
new balance sneakers, such as the proactive fiscal policy and in fact ultra-loose monetary policy supporting the implementation of such, in a stable economy is not a , but also brought an undeniable consequences: on the one hand, causing overheated investment in some areas, production and consumption of resources caused by over-the problem of rising inflationary pressures. On the other hand, before the crisis had also led to an active front line in the real sector of the economy The export of private enterprises on the scale of U.S. and European markets because of the financial crisis and massive atrophy) and is continuously degenerate for the future birth of inflation or asset bubbles Moreover, they and the government funding and large-scale financial system is strong, the resulting Just because the real economy has not yet appeared substantial improvement trend, coupled with the growing real estate market measures to strengthen the consolidation, so we have not seen a lot of liquidity in the market today or in the property market in the stock market focus, creating a irrational exuberance before the common situation. However,
伤感情歌36首(连放) - Qzone日志, if the signs of financial capital by kidnapping; this is a bad money drive out good money performance! Specifically, the influx of money and is associated with financial assets (today, ) are all sought after and preserved, it is this distortion of the
Third, the entry of hot money, while Europe and the U.S. economy into a severe deflation, interest rate channel will take some time) and gave our domestic arbitrage and speculation to create a golden Thus, there has been no previous large investments in oil and agricultural customers, today put their own business or personal savings deposits removed from the banking system, to enter into such Kuaijinkuaichu can make money in the market, even Many speculators in some areas can use local banks and their lending capacity to low (official price) purchase of the privilege, a massive accumulation of agricultural products and oil products and reselling, which also accelerated in the domestic market such products (black market) soaring in the situation. And today we have seen, mainly developed in response to deflation and begin their implementation of a quantitative easing of monetary policy to the overseas release of a large amount of hot money out of it and increasing our domestic , resulting in growing our foreign and domestic currency appreciation led to the declining purchasing power, inflation worsen the situation.
Fourth, the product supply chain,
做菜时你绝对不知道的123个门道 - Qzone日志, often there are few upstream resource industry is the monopoly of state-owned enterprises and the central market, although they do not look like the kidnapping of international financial capital is now crude oil market as a result of high prices to deliberately the ability to price fluctuations. Thus, when the international resource prices soaring oil prices on the national and the final consumer prices and the implementation of management's time, it is prone to Of course, in this pattern, the market is prone to On the contrary, we see that in the black market supply is quite adequate, and this black market prices soaring together with the international prices. More serious problem is that when production costs rise, people will naturally end prices of consumer goods has been greatly increased.
fifth, with the privilege of import and export of resource products business, the use of domestic oil production of excess capacity and they can cheap (the official control of price) purchase of the superiority of the international financial capital to push for higher oil prices and commodity prices and domestic prices under government control between the Here,
两只小狗的唯美 - Qzone日志, even if just from the oil price itself, the international price and the gap between the domestic monopoly price after deduction of exchange rates is not very obvious, but, taking into account taxes and other domestic fuel duty factor was high, both inside and outside Spread the As a result, the domestic market will be further exacerbated the shortage of resources and products.
Sixth, price controls have led to the product supply capacity in the domestic market was a serious decline,
new balance outlet, further exacerbated by the On the other hand, middle and lower reaches of these companies and will own industrial capital into the market, government price controls are inadequate to conduct regulatory arbitrage, leading to sharp increase in demand there, which increased by the inflationary pressures. No matter which causes the government's price controls are pushing society in the price level. Even if the government wanted to end the price of all products and the management of the implementation of more stringent, but still because of rising regulatory costs will lead to increased corruption and rampant black market. This is the history of economic and social development in China has appeared in an unknown number of lessons.
from the face of the At least for now, the state measures taken in response and look forward direction is the Chinese people can not be ignored will be less effective. For example, strengthened the people's inflation expectations, it will call a lot of hoarding of consumer goods,
new balance running shoes, this Specifically, between government and enterprises, between the national price of suppression of effective measures to be taken, today failed to reach
First, For example, whether open or break the monopoly of trade restrictions, are factors conducive to the Chinese market Of course, we can not deny that the market mechanism in the formation of the equilibrium price of the time, and can not guarantee that financial capital can be ruled out kidnapping and agricultural commodity markets short-term speculation, and the resulting equilibrium price too high. In particular and the livelihood of resource-related prices will rise sharply if the once a threat to social stability and harmony. Therefore, the state of the resource sector often implement market access controls to prevent vicious competition or profit-driven market to control supply and price of the monopoly. However, the public has not enjoyed this today think they should have been out of the way of supplying the requested resource welfare benefits (or even today in many foreign countries there are many similar It was the upstream resource companies use their monopoly privileges and the price surge in the use of the country's external environment to further their own commercial profit.
second is the For example, government tax cuts and deregulation are all important means to enhance market dynamism. If administrative measures are the result of increased business costs, then, is likely to be because companies have the ability to pass the cost of the final push up consumer prices. Of course, the market demand does not fully saturated case, even if extensive portfolio companies have room to expand to survive. You power cuts, it will buy diesel power generation on their own to seek immediate opportunities exist. Unless the market of its development to a In addition to this stage supply side of the formation of a new breakthrough innovation outside, but also rely on the supply side needs to face the results of the acceptance. However, the current government may be more from the supply side point of view of the importance of upgrading the industrial structure and urgency, which would overlook China's current stage of development determined by the mass purchasing power and the ability of human capital investment, it will ignore Today, China's strong demand for the accumulation of wealth (the majority of Chinese people now are not as extravagant as European and American society but thrifty household management) and investment power to create wealth. So, how to overcome the rising costs of wealth down the high cost of enterprise industrial upgrading and restructuring of the power shortage in the future development of countries in developing a forward-looking industrial policies can not be ignored.
Third, the government, For example, in the case of high inflation,
new balance mens, it is generally agreed that interest rates should be through timely means of reducing national wealth (especially the most disadvantaged groups of the wealth) loss. There are also many private entrepreneurs should be adopted that However, the Government departments concerned in the domestic and international situation today is very complex circumstances, interest rates actually assumed the United States and Europe quantitative easing monetary policy to the world economy as well as market risk caused by the second bottom of the economic risks. Too much hot money inflows as birth currency appreciation, inflation and asset bubbles, resulting in the hollow of the domestic industry, the financial bubble of the such as geopolitical disputes broke out to a sudden the hot money is likely to leave a large scale today, and the internationalization of RMB under current account convertibility of the currency and depth of foreign currency, and compared the situation before joining WTO, has undergone a qualitative change, free access to a large extent opened the hot money channels in mainland China. Therefore, negative interest rate hike is not only not reduce the phenomenon, but because of liquidity which led to further proliferation of a greater intensity of the rise in prices. On the other hand, profit-sharing to the export-oriented domestic enterprises, the state worried that give rise to the trouble of trade friction, even when price negotiations with foreign investors, but also to let others use their pricing power to take the Chinese government car.
this, I would like to mention a few anti-inflationary policy recommendations, although the idea has been considered the multiple factors, but still needs further scientific proof, and some measures need to be better the other with the implementation of supporting measures because as there is no reason to doubt, to this point, tight monetary policy alone is not enough, it is a complex system which needs a portfolio of policy-making department to find a balance point and the policy of the most import timing of the implementation of best efforts and reasonable. These policy measures are the following areas constitute:
1. differences in approach to the structural transformation of the industrial policy, one size fits all businesses now replaced the administrative control measures, voluntary and government support to business combination, to control the emissions-reduction targets. Additional burden never increase their departure a precondition, you can let the central state-owned enterprises to large enterprises and transformation of energy saving and carbon emissions trading Mode reasonable. Private enterprise and effective support from the government and guidance of successful experience in expired carbon emissions down and gradually complete the task.
2. efforts to ensure the supply channels, and timely use of strategic reserves to increase supply on the market, and kidnapping against financial capital resource commodities speculation. Through effective price controls to ease the people's expectations of inflation, strengthen the problem. The U.S. dollar dominated the recent turmoil in the international monetary system caused by commodity and agricultural prices skyrocketing, it should appeal to the international regulatory authorities and relevant national regulatory authorities into the investigation in a timely manner, and speculation that the imposition of severe sanctions.
3. to pass strong policies to support and guide the tax system to encourage private capital into the financing business innovation platform. Regardless of where the risk of social responsibility act of charity from the material and spiritual support. This has the advantage, on the one hand through technological innovation and the economy of scale and scope to reduce the cost of new products and the
4. upstream resource monopoly price formation mechanism to assign the obligation to explain to the public, to accept on behalf of the interests of the In principle, fluctuations in market prices to reflect the trend, but the impact of fluctuations in the price by pre-important industry and the livelihood of the industry) to be alleviated.
5. on the import and export of resource products to set a When the inside and outside the spread below a certain critical value, we must limit its exports to ensure domestic supply, so as laissez-faire unlimited resource products to China, profit-driven behavior of society's problems. Of course, we in the development of critical value when the exchange rate or to emphasize the tax adjusted relative price levels.
6. on the livelihood of resource-related industries, the conditions are ripe, on the one hand should be in the industrial chain link pattern on the strengthening of free competition, on the other hand should also invite all companies to join in this industry A Once the supply shocks caused when the insolvent enterprises, professional organizations recognized by the third party, you can use this insurance to tide over their difficulties, in order to ensure market stability in the supply capacity.
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