Memoirs II bear market

[kodybyan64ap]

From 2245 points to 998 points, bit by bit to see a bear market.
Each round of the bull market,armani glasses, are similar to the peasant uprising and bound to bring a large number of new investors into the market at high tide, and then gradually into the long winter, many The revolutionaries under torture lost faith in the struggle, and then start another cycle, but not many people left with the last round of memory: Forgetting the past means betrayal, no history is not mature, so the investment, such as in round like the old, always again and again.

What is investment, not to find garbage in the climax species; but underestimated the opportunity to see the despair. Let us get 998 times the space shuttle, look at how the market was struggling to survive, please add a memory of friends.

2001 年

2001, the year 14 June 2245 saw the big top, but at the time people finish immersed in the climax of the bull market, not many people think has been very dangerous. Xiaonian writer in September 2001 a research report that the current market correction is inevitable and also healthy, even predict when the index fell 1,000 points or so might be again. He told the Chinese stock market from the Much earlier, in June 2000, Li Jiange (when he was deputy director of the State Economic Restructuring Office) wrote: Some fallen by half on the price, but also what can not be considered incomprehensible things, but the stability of the whole society will be severely affected. visible, high price-earnings ratio investors not only stuck, but stuck with the whole community. >
from the situation at the time, Prime threats I sent two chiefs, the eyes may be about 20 times earnings, after all, is the price-earnings ratio was 20 times the prospectus, the early market is intended primarily for the relief offered by state-owned fund-raising function, to a general break when almost the end of a big, so they all look up and down 1,000 points.

However, this moment was then, when the bigwigs approved about 20 times earnings, to the full circulation in China today after the stock market, whether it continues to fit it?

big brother did not say, but the market will soon give the answer.

is roughly 20 times the current location, if the anti-body up here, the view that brass is still valid today. If the depth of the broader market continues to fall, it shows that big brothers need the times, the so-called reasonable price-earnings ratio downward revisions. Shanghai Composite Index closed the year

in 1645, slid 20% over the previous year; however, look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2001 the top ten gains:

600006 600831ST Yellow Dongfeng Motor Engineering Section, Xiamen 600815 Tai Yuen machine shares 600,679 600,146 shares of Phoenix Pudong Stainless 600 132 600 748 600 186 Lianhuaweijing Chongqing Beer 600745ST Ningxia Hengli Kangsai 600,165 Distribution 15% to increase 46%, largely occupied by Zhuanggu for the small cap, which is the bull market Finally, the wind wave is doing Lang Zhuanggu in Hing.

apart from a few of these stocks, such as 600831,600748 later re-turned as blue chip stocks, 600,815 to benefit from reverse engineering machinery and out of the wave of bull market, bear most of the Long March in the back off the road left behind so badly Because the main chain of cut off of funds, had no answer down the fierce drive to kill off the regular basic can play two folded. For example, the Galaxy was the largest securities to fame because of adverse economic Zuozhuang 600006,600377 and out.

2002 年

2002, the close of 1358 points, when they slid 20%, but is worthy of a great book that year on June 23, management announced a freeze on state-owned shares, San people flocked into the room that is substantive good, but the long-quilt of funds took the opportunity to broker a big seller, 1747 to become the commanding heights of the year. This is because many believe that state-owned shares at the market price reduction policy is the fundamental reason for a bear market, so stop the reduction is a fundamental move, very similar to the present size of the non bar.

2002 年 10 months, the stock index experienced a temporary support in 1500, the index in the same location after another dropped out again after another huge positive three times resurgence, as Shiliu Da in the year was held on November 8, Therefore, the so-called slump After opening in June 2008 K-line graph, line graph K is also feeling the truth ring.

02 ten-year stock index rose:

600057 Xiaxin

600664 Hayao

600714 mountains Chang nine shares

600228 Biochemical

600836 Jielong

600377 Jiangsu Expressway

600710 Changlin

600235 Minfengtezhi

600217 Qinling Cement Huaxi Securities

then start 600057 and 600786 for independent and beat the Galaxy, one chip, while the south is a two-Ha, 600,664 and 600,038, although there are 624 of good help at running, but the nature of the brokerage funds They will be further and further away, as Han Zhidong said: first, find the money to the South, and the second is to find the money to the original position to continue to do so, coming to a bull market came to liberate. But then we do not realize that spring is still far away. The second bear market, or to Zhuanggu performance-based. Took too much, if not the South Zuozhuang 600,664, and later falling out with the Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, Hayao instructions will not be in accordance with the SASAC, the majority of high-quality assets are injected into the other country to vote Zuozhuang of 600,829 ha to go.

dancing mobile phone, Huaxi Securities and cook them at least an acceptable current market myth, the second approach compared to the first field to be wise to do some of the stupid. 624

policy due to damage too, this time the concept has gained a bear market, after all the positive management as a whole is not to play with blood-pin and appreciate, but in fact, spring is not far , and the closing price in 2002 to buy, in 2003 was able to get out of trouble, to early 2004 which brought the red envelopes. The reason is that problems in the field of the securities has been threatening to domestic financial security.

At this point, brokerage funding chain problems are more and more exposed, thus limiting access to capital from outside brokerage firms, industry issues and lead to large outbreaks in 2003 and the Commission a full range of remediation.

However, in another front, in 2000, City is growing rapidly. Although at the time the Fund's total market share is not high, but has begun to have the influence, is more interesting: the last trading day for two consecutive years late to do pull-high market value, which is the more boring Ruoshi coming up. Since joining the large number of new funds, the fund's performance that year is less than the index down 5 percentage points, but closed the performance is very poor, bear a blood transfusion to the task of open-end fund, the fund needs to be done because new high-performance open to increase their size. This also shows that the flow of capital itself, brokerage chain of funding problems, the securities out of funds entered the open-end funds.

2003 年

2003, the market is characterized by the largest birth of a new profit model, as an expression of value investing, iron and steel, petrochemical, automobile , electricity, financial blue chips, represented by the stock market to become dominated throughout the year in 2003, accounting for most of the market and profit opportunities.

showed shares mainly in electricity, steel, automobile, petrochemical and other industries with high degree of industry boom.

QFII funds and this year is a year of rapid development of power, while the total brokerage funds outbreak chain problems, but also the flow of funds to strengthen the stock market fund pool. Decimated the broker, when the bull stock almost entirely dominated by the Fund and the QFII, while the original Zhuanggu model was abandoned.

brother and I to help 温故 add -

03 year also met SARS in April 2003 the stock market had triumphantly,tods on line, is to be in mid-April outbreak of SARS interrupted from soaring in early April to late April .... then the fund manager plunge, brokers almost no studies researchers GDP, CPI ... every day, waited at the front of the TV news network, to see the two data , called the number of cases of new cases, a number of known cases of new suspected cases, and then analyze the data of daily rings ... the next day the broader market than the basic high and U.S. stocks open lower Hong Kong shares open all does not matter, that is, and the data on these two. ...

Oh, thank you upstairs Brothers added:

03 years, the market has a lot of events happened, when the Commission in a downturn is not idle.

1 month, launched a large transaction. But no one with the Shanghai Stock Exchange until August was just pulling out the first single, or bonds. Shenzhen has come from behind, Galaxy Securities led 000,735, use the first one higher than the market price, pushed up the wave, and ran off. . . .

2 months, the central authorities issued advice on the capital markets, the Securities and this one should set a higher status and finally, through rooms until a large girl, want to go to bed to bed, got out of bed had to do hard labor . However, when many people did not value the paper, especially since the first quarter of atypical pneumonia caused by market failures, then do not listen to management 忽悠 popular.

2 month of preheating of the QFII, first approved custodian bank to 9. Chen Feng remember brother is so described: the resources must be playing stocks, crude oil, nonferrous metals and the like, must be the configuration of their scarcity. Results July 9 under the first single by the UBS: 600018,600019,600270,000063 the next day all the red plates.

there was boom of blue-chip support, so after a failed rally in the first quarter, up more, fall less, and the Fund should continue to flow to the capital after Kuomu, QFII is that after entering direction so far outperformed the market throughout the year value as investment began to spread.

4 month when the first tender offer 600,282; June 11, Baosteel Group placards 600,643; July, shares in the Hangzhou Iron and Steel, Lutianhua the semi-annual report of the top ten shareholders in the country respectively, combination of Social Security Fund 103, 104 portfolio, which is the first appearance of social security funds semi-annual report. September, TCL merged first convertible, access to market a warm bubbling.

fact, a downturn in the index, outside the capital flowing into the market gradually, but Like father is inevitable. Meanwhile, a large number of stars in the era before the curtain call Zhuanggu, April 000048 Luliang case verdict; and Deron Department has officially fallen in the year. Breath and closed the year in Dalian, Xinhua and other adverse broker, with in-depth media coverage, the original PLAY mode and financing platform have also fallen.

03-year bull stock list:

600205 Shandong Aluminum

600886 China Jing

600104 Shanghai Automotive

600002 Qilu Petrochemical

600740 Shanxi Coking

600786 Dongfang Boiler

600688 Shanghai Petrochemical

600362 Jiangxi Copper

600026 China Shipping Development

600585 Conch Cement

gains distribution of 80% to 130%, you can see the main clue is the industry's bubbling economy and prices, some 600,886 of stock and restructuring-related category. Downturn in the industry to begin mass mergers like the stock 600585,600320,000039 entered the mainstream's attention, and later in the aluminum, petrochemical and the like are starting to slump in the industry in completing the internal integration. This is a typical concentration of the Fund and the QFII holdings list, 600,786 is the last of a legacy. That is: the third phase in a bear market, the importance of stock selection has been higher than the election, and some high-quality stocks began to clear access to all ages.

However, 03 years in September, began to raise deposit reserve ratio, 04-year macro-control has an atmosphere.

2004 年

time into 2004, the beginning of China Southern Securities was taken over the whole year off and being taken over by brokerage firms reached a new high, and thus the formation of a large number of two open positions. At the same time the Commission decided to turn on the water quality broker, open a brokerage asset management plans set for approval, while CITIC, Hai Tong, Great Wall approved the first issuance of 42 million. The rebound in the first quarter, stock index rose from 1300 to 1873, when the bull market that come back, but is accompanied by the central bank to raise interest rates and raising the reserve ratio, the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control is increasing, this is the first time experienced value investors control pain.

However, they have also been expanding the camp, insurance, direct investment is approved, Social Security, said two investment should increase, the management of enterprise annuity market is open, while the Fund was first created LOF; brokerage also allowed to issue short-term financing bills, while reducing the annual fee and the exchange seat use fees, as part of the broker if you do not enter the liquidity to face the danger of large-scale bankruptcy. The April 04 rally failed, is a down side, almost no trading opportunities. Until the September 04, the Commission suspended some time IPO, the purpose of inquiry into the distribution system is, but at that time the number of shares break has been very much. But because of the September in 2004 there is a rapid rebound quickly, from 1200 until the 1500, followed by a continuous 阴跌, shrinking the liquidity of the market until nearly exhausted.

Basically, the bear market at this stage is that all are as good sporting chance, not being to be the most investors who see the market entered a difficult situation both parties involved. Comparison is bizarre: the year in January and November, Shanghai Stock Exchange have both been an interruption of normal trading, but after the emergence of the phenomenon of short-term trading activity.

2004 year also released a stock-secured loan scheme, but also to the quality of a broker open channel flow; four ministries jointly issued a way to protect the interests of small investors is to broker trust management acquired the debt in part by the National 10 million or less do not discount, a discount of more than 10 million. Some people joke: a trust management to do better, even after two years of a bear market to make a Jiuzhe get it back, but also less than the bear out of the loss of many, really be protected.

the same time, the voting mechanism of classification in December came out, the benefit of hindsight, this is actually split share structure reform to play lead and the other does play some role in the protection of the interests of investors. However, the following bear market the product of Viagra, has not many people worry about these things, because the benefits have already reduced die.

from a realistic sense, the history of the candles to the future, the management of natural integration to the market, get down to make the system construction, the road is the Yangtze River.

04 年 9 months, Overseas Chinese Town Group, the acquisition of the giant fields as securities, while the giant fields account a large number of 0069 on the outstanding shares, so tell the world, two hundred million dollars to buy back 0069, engaged in Ruoshi Quotes from shaking. After 0069 when the price has not been broken. December 2004, Zheng Junhuai Yang Guiqin female assistant were arrested and their long-term, the market was shocked. However, the 600,887 released in the fall after the huge row has been picked up a Boshi Fund and Century Securities, said Pan Gang, the new head of institutional commitment to these results the future growth of the price of the day have become the historical low, even in the 998 of more than 30% when the floating surplus. The third phase of the bear market is already active to re-see the shadow of the new Zhuanggu

This is a typical stock analysts at the article, but it can be discerned:

since March 2004 to March 2005's top gainer, rose in the two cities out of the top 20 stocks selected for analysis the following 20 stocks, because most of these stocks continue to hit a new high, very compelling. 20 stock are: the set of Group,polo shirts for men, Suning Appliance, Maotai, Offshore Oil, Chiwan, Yantai Wanhua, Commodity City, Salt Lake Potash, large business shares, Tong Ren Tang, Sinochem International, ZTE, Yunnanbaiyao, Changyu A, Shanghai Airport, East donkey-hide gelatin, Xishan Coal and Electricity, Anhui Expressway, Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery, Huaneng Power. In this year fell, and these stocks rose 20% to 98%.

Summary gainer year groups, both resource stocks, there are also commercial sector, board, industry characteristics are not very obvious. Ushimata various industries are likely to emerge, of course, the cattle industry boom and high higher probability of stock. Similarly, the plate size is not the determining factor, CIMC, ZTE, Shanghai Airport up and down the market value of 100 billion, while Suning, Yunnanbaiyao market value of around 1.5 billion, etc., can go very cattle.

If so, what factors have contributed to the bullish stock it? summarize the common features of these stocks, that is, monopoly and a leader, and the resulting steady growth.

look monopolization, there is a variety, a kind of monopoly of resources, such as Salt Lake Potash typical and unique to bring a steady stream of profits of potash, coal also belong to non-renewable resource monopoly. Maotai, Yunnanbaiyao is another monopoly - - brand monopoly, liquor is not surprising, but was only found in that place Maotai, only where the water to brew Liquor, thus forming a unique brand can not be copied. Shanghai Airport is the local monopoly, regardless of money or airline lose money, as long as the aircraft parked at the airport had to pay, which is a Warren Buffett called understand the value of these companies. a lot of company's gross margin to be much higher than the average company.

look at the leader, and some companies do not monopolize the resources, but rely on superior management ability, gradually changed in the industry leader. Typical is not innate, such as CIMC has a monopoly of resources companies, but after 10 years of hard work, has become the world's largest container manufacturer, natural gain more profits. business is highly competitive, low margin industry However, shares of Suning Appliance and big business to seize the opportunity to expand and increase market share, the growth performance of the company, has become the industry leader,air max 2010, the stock will go all the way cow. Yantai Wanhua, Huaneng Power upgrade also belong to this Nature. GF to do the reorganization of the military counter-cyclical shares increase. During this period, some funds for counter-cyclical stocks is also very interested in the class, such as Harvest to buy a lot of drugs, 000538,600276; course, the cycle of low class they are configured, such as a listing on the break of 601,111. The above form, most of the classes is counter-cyclical stocks, as the 2004 macro-control is the most easily used to explain the reasons for the decline.

the other end of the market, some private equity begun to put forward: the purchase of a basket of China's most outstanding companies, which is more than 20 yuan at the time high-priced stocks Rights; others are put forward: the purchase of a basket of the worst The company, which is below the cap, lower 2 yuan. Later proved that two people have made fortunes, the combination of the worst in the bull market actually the best combination of rate of return is even higher than some, although some went to the three boards were mixed. Of course, the former appears to have more people taste, then this collection has to take the new Trust.

Throughout 2004-2005, pigs can buy a ticket to make money, buy what in fact is no longer important. However, for people who at that time, the night seemed very long, and did not think the basement floor, as there are, can really achieve the promised 05 thousand points of big brother.

2004 list Ushimata year, or distribution of 70 to 96%:

000617 Jinan Diesel

600561 Jiangxizhangyun

600519 Guizhou Maotai

000608 Shine

000039 CIMC

600415 Commodity City

600169 Taiyuan Heavy Industry

600596 shares
Xin
000063 ZTE

600521 Huahai

list at this time period can also see the footprints of some brokers, such as the Great Wall Securities 000,617, 600,561 of the Jiangnan Securities, 600,169 of Orient Securities, 000,608 of the Jin and Yuan Securities; Since then, the power broker system and then slowly decline in the market continues, new phase of expanding their share of the Fund.

sense of the vicissitudes of the times people are always filled with emotion. Remember the 600,199 and 600,399 that year in September after a big bull stock, which is the subject of restructuring wave. After years of bear market, the market needs to do a more imaginative themes, restructuring on the very very strong. 399 was sold for housing to the Shanxi Coal, GF Securities and Guangdong Development Fund, the Lord do not sell back into (the last to sell the 000,961, the iron and steel assets to 399); 600,169 ready to sell to Taiwan's Hon Hai, Department of shell Huaxia Fund and the Orient Securities to Be, did not sell into, but 600,169 have become mechanical in blue chip stocks, no longer have reorganized. Of course, these two species of fry is a failure. It is impossible to have a pair of see through the eye of time.

2005 年

2005 onwards, the management of a thought, Ruoshi to promote value investing!

After another round of bear market, everyone understood the whole situation up when the heavy, or when the heavy truth, Pakistan's foreign old man began to feel better after practicing. However, the strengthening of the former while the proportion of 30% dividend, as no one considered to be effective in the bread, although it has also dipped in the blood of everyone. . . .

In January, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the first dividend index. Dividend index constituents based on the following selection criteria: consecutive cash dividend over the past two years, and annual cash dividend rate (after tax) are greater than zero; the past year, market value, average daily circulation of Shanghai A shares in the top 50%; past During the year, average daily turnover in Shanghai A shares ranked the top 50%.

1 23, the Ministry of Finance announced that stamp duty by half. But the index level in 1200 out of a single day giant sun, followed by a rapid decline. Needless to say, for those still in the pit traders, but also a serious injury.

2 months, security information directly into the market to start. Until February 17, Huatai Insurance to complete the first single security funds into the stock, but the insurance capital of the hunters, enough to support the February offensive, has risen to 1328 from the 1188 round of rally. February 24, China 50ETF listed on the card, just as the first ETF, unusually active trading, changing hands on the first day of up to 23%, ETF Jing Shengou in the initial state is also stabilized the broader market.

3 months, the central bank raised the interest rate personal loans, while the excess reserve rate cut. However, in Ruoshi clearly negative is magnified, and a new round of decline began.

4 30, the management issued a Declaration of share reform, announced the beginning of the split share structure reform, this time only the 1159 stock index, the daily amount of the transaction maintained at 50 to 70 million between, call auction can not open a lot of stock.

remember that people are not aware of numbness in the next two years of the bull market this is an important foundation for good, first impression is: the smaller the share reform on the price is to realize the size of the market value of non-tradable. One can imagine the brutal sell into the last round started.

6 月 6 日 11 时 08 points on the Shanghai index 998.23 points, which is since February 21, 1997 has set foot on thousands of points, the Shanghai index fell below the thousand mark for the first time, go back to three digits. However, there is actually reported at the time investors applauded. On the same day, management issued a listed company to buy back approach, but no one believes the President is still a large 忽悠.

In fact, the village center as a paid chairman in February after the closure of a number of issues in addition to brokerage firms other than important work to do is to share reform, as well its relationship Liang Wengen, understanding of the natural mind. June 10, 600,031 shares of reform has become the first company to do go down in history, and soon after announced the repurchase of 600,031 outstanding shares quickly, for the share reform escort. After the promulgation of the method to look at buy-back for the weak market is actually a large number of entities into the capital.

6 13, announced that taxes on half. Also think of the SFC and the IRS recently began to talk about this, do not face difficulties every time, all these tricks pinch?

earlier also announced to the applicant million, Hua grant credit lines to support their mobility. Cross-line listing in Hong Kong in June that year in December is also listed on the Construction Bank, is the largest single international IPO, after years of domestic investors always felt foreign copied CCB IPO of fertilizer, but in fact, when the bank shares valuation levels are similar, there is confidence in thousands of point A copy shares, victories will be better.

turn around a bit these days, basically the big brother of economic sector, economic prospects for next year is pessimistic, the year after also playing missing, anyway, what the first inflation, stagflation, the central point is that What is needed to blow off millet fiscal policy, also can not stop the recession. There is, indeed, enough to taste: state-owned enterprises is a melting popsicle almost as soon as possible restructuring of party to sell well. Particularly the economy and the economy is not such machinery is a large state-owned enterprises to deal with, but also sell discounted, so the province is trying to sell 600,169, but could not agree with the conditions of the Department of Hon Hai, actually not sold. Bear market finally has a theme, we quickly doubled fried, but the self and the China Orient Securities Fund are flesh out the final. Who knew it was not re-blue chip stocks have become the main industry, is rather the economy, if it sold, maybe not how, this year's Hong Kong's Foxconn has lost a lot of value. Similarly, when there are large number of such enterprises, 600150,600685 shares of this type of shipbuilding, aluminum stock valuations are low, the Aluminum Group in the acquisition of a large number of low refining capacity.

winter and spring is indeed a heaven and earth, nothing more than just expected it.

2005 年 6 11, Tongfang share reform has become the first pilot of the first major shareholders to make their voices loud, small investors are voting with their feet apart, and now beginning to be able to vote by hand.

6 29, Baosteel announced the share reform program, which proposed shareholders of tradable shares will be giving 1 for every 10 shares warrants, Baosteel to become the first to warrant the introduction of share reform companies.

8 months, the SASAC, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, Ministry of Commerce jointly issued by five ministries, actively and steadily push forward the transfer basis and conditions. Meanwhile, the release

8 22, the stock market ushered in the first 9 years after an absence of warrants - warrants listing of Baosteel, opening Jibei massive capital letters in the trading board, pull off the crazy speculation warrants.

history proved countless times: stock market investment for the new things are always a lot of passion, who later became the 998 warrants trading since the bull market of the most happy group of people, it is said like ASKING to this fortune.

2005 年 12 月 6 日 warrants turnover exceeded billion mark, the first sum over A shares Han Ping

WASHINGTON journalists reported: Yesterday after the close of attention to people who were shocked to stock market found that only six species even warrant a record turnover of 10.18 billion yuan, setting a world warrant market turnover in the highest single-day record. This is also the country since the creation of warrant transactions, the amount of daily trading surpassed the ten billion mark for the first time, the first time exceeded the amount of warrants market trading the stock market. Correspond with the warrants market is hot, nearly 1,400 stocks traded only amount to 8.531 billion yuan a day.

warrant was caused by management's surprise hot, released in November to broker the creation of methods, thus the creation of qualified broker also assigned an unexpected big cake.

the end of 2005, stock index back to 1200 levels, but then the market is still quite weak, and no one realized that this was the starting point of a new bull market, although there are many cattle were later claim to be early I could see the.