Bubble Dream

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ability to reverse the Government has not the market trend. However, the
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renewed China's stock market and real estate market bubble, which is due to massive bank loans to stimulate, attach with the general panic of inflation occasioned. I think the Chinese stock market and real estate market is overvalued by 50% or even 100%. These 2 markets are promising to modify in the fourth 15 min. -
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However,Lacoste Swerve Keyline Trainers, some time next year, the two market bubble may jump out at again. U.S. dollar reinforced again the day is pretty when the bubble burst. Serious inflation will force the Fed to heave interest rates,Womens Lacoste Shua Trainers, the bubble may be trampled catalyst. -
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China's asset markets has become a monster As speed up sucked into the market and liquidity, are further driving up prices,Lacoste Swerve Lace Trainers, people persist to verify the bullish expectations. Thus, there are more people to enjoy this. However, there is insufficient liquidity to fared it the 1st Now, do not constitute a liquidity thraldom. Although the 1st half of the fashionable loans approached 7.4 trillion yuan, but in June was only 66.6% loan-deposit ratio (compared to December last year, 65%), an increase little. This means that numerous loans did not enter the real economy, but became a leveraged asset market transactions. Chinese real estate market situation in Hong Kong in 1997 are very similar. -
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bubble with the U.S. and downs -
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China
excess liquidity from the asset bubble, showing a high level of foreign reserves and low loan-deposit ratio. The weak dollar and strong exports, resulting in the situation of excess liquidity in China. -
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Although China is experiencing weak exports of torture, but the weak dollar to China to vigorously unlock its accumulation in the past five years, liquidity, and not anxiety about the hazard of currency devaluation. -
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fact, portend when the bubble burst is not difficult. When the dollar became strong again, the liquidity bubble will damage heavily. -
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, although, is complicated to say when it will be a stronger U.S. dollar. 1985 Then, seven years is ox. The new USD bear market began in 2002, and since then, the greenback concordance (DXY) has reduced the value of approximately 35%. If the last round of a bear market for a benchmark, the present bear market could last until 2012. IT revolution, on the one U.S. dollar ox market turned, you never know will not have another technological revolution, to lead the U.S. into a sustainable bull market. -
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, of course, monetary policy can endow to a short but peppery dollar bull market. The early 80s of last century, when the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, with double-digit rate hike to control inflation. Since then, the dollar is very difficult process. The current situation is alike. Basis of this development, virtually certainly, the Chinese chief market and economy would be -
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foam to retain long, relying on the liquidity of government policy. The current bubble, pedaled largely by the Government to encourage banks to inter-bank loans and low interest rates caused. Zero interest rate policy by the Fed, coupled with the feeble dollar, high levels of China's exotic exchange keeps, low loan-deposit ratio and, therefore, resulting in additional liquidity, will further amplify the bubble. However, catching into list other factors, could prompt the government to cool the overheated sensations. -
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establish liquidity if the government do its utmost, then, when the bubble burst, even to retention the If then the global economy has recovered, the Chinese economy with strong exports may be a Conversely, if the global economy was still weak, according to my personal point of view, the stock market, real estate market and the economy will arise -
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false
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The government first set off a liquidity When the liquid is entirely preoccupied, the market will lose momentum. Once the market fell to a decisive extent, the Government could lead to another wave of This approach can not only save the I think the Government might use this tactics. If within the next few years will continue to decline in the global economy, perhaps we can see that China's stock and real estate market to such a large annual fluctuations. Front, which shares the fluctuation may occur down in the -
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Many people consider that China does not bubble. High funds prices simply reflect the latent for high growth in China. No an can mention for sure that this is a real asset in the end the prosperity, alternatively just foam. -
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I view the status of China's capital market is very clear: there is a lot of bubbles. The bubble will burst very wrong throughout the nation the consequences. However, many people are enjoying them, the Government will not pre-emptive buffet to eliminate bubbles. In fact, the policy decision-making,Womens Lacoste Trainers New, many people believe that the bubble is favorable to economic recovery. When the weak U.S. dollar, this argument sounds reasonable, because when the bubble can cool the economy and bring more liquidity. When the dollar recovery, China's capital market, perhaps the entire economy will be a I wish that those who strongly advocated the bubble, could bring an end to ..., take responsibility for the losses. -
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of the most elementary usage is to look at the bubble valuation. Assessment rates, the most important is to measure the price income ratio and rental income. Currently, nationwide, house prices per square measure is already quite near to the U.S. mean. The U.S. per capita income is 7 times the per capita income of the city. China's housing price per square meter, the equivalent of wage income is generally three months, this level is perhaps the maximum in the earth. -
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far as I know, now, not many houses are rented out. Average rental income, if you calculate those who do not lease out the house, then really low and pathetic. In terms of purchasing power of the people, or the expected rental income, China's housing prices are abnormally high. Some people believe that China's real estate has always been true: housing prices higher and higher. This is not right. -
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Chinese real estate market bubble
there is another side, that is, local government finance in its role. Land sales revenue and attribute sales revenue is generated, accounting as a colossal chip of regional government revenue, so they have a mighty incentive to stimulate the real estate market. Land sales are constantly designed to rekindle the prices anticipated. For instance, those who command tall prices of land, will be cried Recently, the When the state-owned companies to lend money to state-owned banks, and through the land auction to return the money the regional government, prices have averaging? Only funds in the government's If personal developers trying to pursue the land market to follow the state-owned corporations, is tantamount to suicide. -
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the stock market never
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stock market is in the final mania. Ignorant retail investors are preoccupied at the rising trend. They nightmare again wealthy overnight. As in the past, retail investors often lose money, principally as long asthose who have fair jumped into the stock market. Finally,Lacoste Zepher MR2 Trainers, the madness often do not final long. In China, the stock market turning points are often related with the political calendar. Retail investors generally believe that the government will not let the stock market in the Republic ahead the 60th anniversary of the fall. The short term, this belief will be self-fulfilling. From historical experience, this wag of mushroom in the -
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In the Greenspan era, the fiscal markets deem namely he forever shot in periods of crisis But in real life, a reversal in the trend, the Government has no aptitude to reverse the market trend. In the past, China's stock market volatility, suggesting namely the government feeble to stop the market decline. However, this fiction is still deeply rooted in the faith that investors in mind. -
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some government think tank, believes that the disadvantageous effects of the bubble may not be so great. A renowned theory is that the bubble up, the money from one pocket into another pocket, at a time paying the money streams in China, it will not generate any long-term impair. So people should see by Japan and Hong Kong to penetrate how the bubble does not exit caused enormous damage. -
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the foam below the resource is accustom to produce more foam. These resources will be permanently consumed. For example, the jobber no longer willing to focus on the real economy, instead invest time and stamina to agree in market speculation. This means that the hereafter of China, will not have a globally competitive corporation. Although China has seasoned 30 years of high growth, but few companies with universal competitiveness. A series of bubbles may be the chief cause of this situation. -
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the younger generations, little savor of real work, instead indulging in stock market presumption. Relative to monthly at a nailed salary, they are more willing to see their stock prices held among a daytime come and go, and then began to hallucinate that they can earn big money in the stock market there. Of course, most of them may have nobody to lose, then, might make some radical pushes. So the social consequences could be very serious. -
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housing mirage -
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real estate bubble often lead to economy overheating. Building empty, characterizing a permanent loss. In China, most people may smile at this possibility. After always, the housing absences of 1.3 billion people is almost unlimited. However, the reality is not like that. China's urban dwellers per capita housing zone is 28 square meters, according to multinational standards, then this level is quite high. China's urbanization rate is about 50%, it can be up to 70% -75%. , Because of the causes for the aging population, the rustic population will be reduced. Therefore, China's urban population will also increase by 3 million people. -
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If we presume that these people are capable to afford a house (in today's price of view, this dialectic is absurd), the city may require increased 8.4 billion square meters of housing. China is now the work has been completed more than 20 million square meters of construction,Lacoste Shoes, there is still ample land to accommodate another 20 million square meters. Annual making capability of the construction industry about 15 million square meters. Absolute excess capability, that insufficient people to have lived in all the houses, the situation may soon appear. When this occurs, the consequences are very serious. Real estate prices may fall sharply, as the Japanese in the past 20 years, experienced the same, it will devastate the plenary banking system. -
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real estate spume of the most solemn mar namely the population alteration. High amounts ambition reduce the birth rate. When the foam explode, real estate prices, low fertility class of cultural amounts ​​can no be changed. Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, in its development process have gone via the real estate bubble. Rampant during the bubble, and their declining birth rate, then, despite administration stimuli, the location has not changed. One namely China's kin arranging policy in itself to lead to catastrophic population of the afterward 20 annuals. Real estate bubble to chance more irreversible trend: Even if the Government abandoned the family planning policy, there will be no premonitory achieve aboard fertility. The afterward 20 years, China will face an aging population and the population decline. Of way, the real estate prices will be very low, and a lower low afresh. -
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In addition to causing redistribution
bubble net detriment, yet also bring a very serious social consequences. In the stock market bubble, a heap of families will lose, but very few people acquire pours. China's wealth breach has been a very serious phenomenon of the bubble to make the situation aggravate. Even until the completion of China's urbanization, a considerable chapter of the people, even most people, may not have whichever money. This will lead to social instability. When most people have asset and a area in society and the market economy is settled and forcible. -
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short, the current market madness will not last long. Next year, because China is still learned of releasing more liquidity, another wave of fever may occur. Strong when the dollar retrieval, you may in 2012, China's stock and real estate market may be like during the eastern financial crisis, like an avalanche. -
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