Russian Winter and Arab Spring
The end of Soviet rule two decades ago unleashed new freedoms in Russia, but also roller coaster political and economic life. Arab countries should learn from Russia’s transition. The West should be realistic about Arab prospects, while encouraging reform even as it is resisted in Syria and elsewhere. The Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of a stagnating state-run economy, cynical ideology and popular disillusionment. Modest reforms by the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, raised hopes but failed to remake a rigid and grossly inefficient system. Catapulted into independence, Russia had no blueprint or consensus for reform but did have a freely elected president, Boris Yeltsin. He empowered young reformers who, with help from the International Monetary Fund and the United States, launched a bold program of economic shock therapy. Most prices were freed and the ruble floated. Quick action bolstered food supplies and narrowly averted government bankruptcy, but ensuing inflation eroded savings and caused most living standards to plummet. Privatization of state economic property through vouchers was manipulated; the poor sold them for a pittance. In comparison, Egypt and Tunisia have far more Western-style technocrats but lack legitimate rulers. Until they emerge, <a href="www.trading666.com"><strong>wholesale Cheap Replica Handbags from china </strong></a> economies will slide and governance will founder. Arab states in transition ought not to delay in installing legitimate leaders and halting policies that impoverish treasuries. Egypt, for example, is burdened by entrenched military overlords, wasteful energy subsidies and a huge, resource-squandering state economic sector. Yeltsin and his successor, Vladimir Putin, launched major reforms early in their tenures, but retreated when vested and corrupt interests counter-attacked. While incomes have improved, the failure to complete reforms has left Russia overly dependent on oil and gas exports to support the budget and renew infrastructure. When they take office, new Arab leaders should have reform blueprints in hand and move fast before political honeymoons ebb. Transparent, competitive privatization of state economic property should be an early priority. Every sector ought to be open to foreign investment, with limited exceptions for genuine national security interests. Commercial laws and regulations should be modernized rapidly and, while protecting economic sovereignty, harmonized with those of the European Union, the essential Arab economic partner. The European Union is wisely promising “more money for more reforms” in its southern <a href="www.trading666.com"><strong>wholesale fashion lv handbags online from china </strong></a> neighborhood. The West should expect little gratitude, however, for its aid. In the winter of 1991-92 the West rushed medical and food aid to Russia, but often people saw the assistance as an exercise in humiliation. Many proud Arabs will react similarly. The West ought to base aid decisions on its long-term interest in a freer and more prosperous Arab world, not on winning friends. Donors should be short on promising and long on doing. The West tempers policies toward Russia to accommodate multiple strategic interests, such as energy for Europe, nuclear peace and logistics for NATO forces in Afghanistan. The West will back Arab openings when they do not threaten energy supplies, Israel’s security, or a united front against Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. These interests are transcendent. Even so, firm Western policies toward Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya, and now Bashar al-Assad in Syria show strong support for the Arab awakening. In Russia the West was frustrated in trying to reform middle-aged, Soviet-trained elites. In Arab countries the West ought to have a longer-term focus: influencing the young and helping them build civil society institutions, such as independent political and social <a href="http://www.trading666.com/others-brand-cigarettes-f2-66.html"><strong>wholesale marlboro red cigarettes from china </strong></a> organizations and private enterprise. Sending many more Arab students to Western universities may be the best investment. The United States led the West’s post-Soviet response in Russia. Now Europe is best placed to foster change in most of the Arab world and build enduring economic and people-to-people ties. Arab development is of great consequence for Europe’s social peace and prosperity, and will modulate immigration flows to Europe. Europe’s lead in the effort to aid Libyan rebels fighting to oust Qaddafi is commendable, but it is only a start. While the United States will be out front in encouraging reform in Iraq and to some extent in Egypt or in Saudi Arabia, Europe must lead in other Arab countries undergoing change. The latter countries are strategic to Europe but not to America, as shown by the domestic challenges to United States involvement in the Libyan campaign. For many years Arab challenges may be Europe’s greatest external preoccupation. Not since <a href="http://www.htzh.net/view.php?id=21473"><strong>Norway mass killer wants time in court to tell why (Reuters)</strong></a> World War II has the need for European leadership abroad been so great and the opportunity so promising. Denis Corboy, former European Commission ambassador to Georgia and Armenia, is director of the Caucasus Policy Institute at Kings College London. William Courtney is a former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia.Kenneth Yalowitz, former U.S. ambassador to Belarus and Georgia, is director of the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.
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