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, When the property market pick up?

2011-07-25 18:24:22 | Category: Default Category | Tags: | font size media and small subscription



4 ask?

2009, when the property market pick up?

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Unfortunately, the real estate policy has been to November 2007 only after issuance of, so I think the policy in 2008 focused on the introduction of real estate too tightly.

China and then detect a second manufacture to assist such a colossal buyer, tin advocate such a large investment, and merely real estate, it is ranked premier. Should solve the problem ahead, you do not solve it all death over, and finally the price would not exist.

real estate, whether in China or the United States, all have leverage, leverage is a risk of failure, because it is the leveraging, the United States, the lever is in the sub-prime failure of this issue.

I think after the second quarter of 2009 will go to a rational, we are called to pick up 也好. Definitely not 2008 and 2007, continual the story, nor will be skyrocketing in 2007, there will not be diving in 2008, 2009, should turn the page, there will be a new balance and healthy development. Do not gaze at

price, the transaction is more important than price! Only have a market transaction. Market economy is commerce, there is no buyer-seller How can a market economy.

guests: 聂梅生

graduated from Tsinghua University, Department of Civil Engineering water supply and drainage, Southwest China Municipal Engineering Design Institute was the work of more than 18 years. 1984 to 1986 by the National Institute of bringing to the United States Lunsailier (RensselearPolytechnicInstitute) as a visiting scholar. Science and Technology in 1994 as Secretary, Ministry of Science and Technology Committee, the Ministry of Construction since 1998 as the housing industry's Office, Deputy Director of the Department of Science and Technology Committee since 1996 as the Water Industry Branch of China Civil Engineering Society president. Since 2001 the All-China Federation of Industry Real Estate Chamber of Commerce.

2008 年 12 21, the State Council published the Why do prices come down hard? Crux of the problem prevaricate? 2009 China property market guide?

Zeng Mexico: Many people have described China's real estate market in the quondam 2 to three years is like a roller coaster ride, fast way to the prosperity and rapid access to the downturn, so the ups and downs, you appears to be what causes it?

聂梅生: It should be said to be two reasons, one is the real estate market and overall macroeconomic trends connected. For example, since 2007 large, it is because the whole of China's GDP rose much faster, especially high fixed wealth investment growth rate is high, liquidity is very mighty. Internationally, too, so resulting in the 2007 state of the economy overheated. Real Estate to emulate it up with the run, which is one reason. The fluctuations of the market in 2008 is also affected by the macroeconomic impact of the tight monetary policy, the real estate in the country for 6, eight countries, two suites, etc. are all tightening policy is introduced for the hot context of. After tightening, coupled with the real estate itself, but also to adapt the cycle time, an industry it can not continuously triumph. While China's economy to this cycle, coupled with some international factors, such as the United States, Wall Street financial emergency. Superposition of these ingredients together: one is its own economic reasons, one is the policy of reasons, one is international causes of the large 2007 and 2008 from the depth adjustment.

[Further reading



six countries in 2006, nine ministries and the State Council promulgated the regulation of the real estate market on the six policy.

country six characteristic content:

(a) effectively adjusting housing supply structure. Focus on the development of low-cost, small and medium size housing, affordable housing and low-rent housing. All localities should formulate and implement housing construction plan, the concrete structure, the proportion of new housing requirements.

(b) further develop the tax, credit, land policy in vitro. Strict implementation of housing development, sales policies, improve the housing transfer part of tax policy, told and suitable adjustment of credit policies to guide and regulate housing needs. Science to determine the size of real estate development and land supply, to reinforce supervision of land use, to stop land hoarding behavior.

(c) the reasonable control of the size and progress of urban house demolition, cut back on the redundant growth of passive housing demand.

(iv) real estate beyond amend and standardize market order. Strengthen the entire process of real estate development and construction supervision, to stop unauthorized changes to the project, unlawful trading, hoarding action of availability and driving up prices.

(E) to expedite the construction of urban low-rent housing system, regulate the development of affordable housing, and actively amplify the secondary market and the rental housing market, tread by step to solve the housing difficulties of low-income families.

(f) improve real estate statistics and information disclosure system to enhance the transparency of the real estate market information, comprehensive, timely and accurate information on the loosen of market supply and demand, insist on correct guidance of public attitude.

eight countries

views of the State Council, eight stable prices:

one spliced magnificent magnitude to stabilize housing prices;

Second, take effective and stable housing prices duty;

Third, actively adjusting housing afford building;

Fourth, the rigid control of passive housing demand;

five, right and lead people to a reasonable consumer demand;

six, comprehensive monitoring of the real estate market;

seven, and actively implement the norm of housing supply policies and fathom;

eight, carefully organized to stabilize the housing price supervision and inspection work.

chief bank, China Banking Regulatory Commission to explain: how to define the second (or more) housing

People's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, September 27, 2007 jointly issued real estate credit treatment placard The human in charge of policy adjustments questioned reporters questions.

on how to define housing

the lawful said, entered the database message in a timely means in order to ensure that the Borrowers also should be the principle of probity fill in the lend compact in the first several sets of loans for the purchase of items relative to housing information.

To mainly guard against financial risks, shall not less than 40% interest rate not lower than the People's Bank of the same grade of 1.1 times the benchmark rate; also asked mercantile banks to increase significantly with additional duplicate number of loans the minimum down remittance and interest rates. Meanwhile, in order to protect the borrower's repayment ability, discourage credit risks,

(taken from the China News Network)

Zeng Mexico: policy which played a character in how much? In the real estate market entered a downturn phase, nigh the fire of a number of policies, but still can not ease the market pressure. In this case, many people have made some reproof of the policy.

聂梅生: It should be said that from 2003, this circular of macro-control of real estate has proceeded for five years. My personal outlook, starting from the fourth quarter of 2007 introduced a sequence of plan is for real estate, but also for China's macro economy. We believe that the CPI index will mushroom, the economy came from the peppery side hot, that the inflationary pressures in 2008 too, so introduced a lot of policy. Unfortunately, the real estate policy has been to focus on the introduction afterward in November, it announced too tightly; problems afterward the introduction of new policies and the real estate late, so the formation of the present location. Because of this, the market does not appear in significant changes in the hereafter.

Zeng Mexico: So you agree with many economists, including the industry's view that real estate is a need to reiterate the policy, and the lack of forward-looking?

聂梅生: I accede with this view.

Zeng ink: In addition, the image itself, and real estate developers have a certain relationship? In many ordinary people could not supply housing or to the people's calculating, some real estate developers for the callous.

聂梅生: Speaking of the real estate industry, whether you now not to grant that there is a definite resentment of. But in fact you a closer look, the makeup of which prices of land revenue instantly, together with land-related charges and income houses, plus real estate narrated transactions, earnings tariffs, the government took this last portion of the income is almost 60%. You say prices are also high, you have 60% of this bear some responsibility, not just 40% of the chapter to be responsible.

Zeng ink: buy a house of ordinary people, does not seem to understand that the Government obtain a 60% profit, do not quite understand the so-called affordable housing should be 1 of the government's responsibility, and blindly put all grievances spread to the developer who built such a contradiction. This contradiction in the current market downturn, do you think will be eased?

聂梅生: I think that eased. Among the new six countries, there is a special thing that this is reasonable to calculate the price to the developer. And now the room is also a great selection room. Second, bank interest rates this low. Third, the government in support of family buyers purchase a broad diversity of general commercial housing and above the benefits. Count them together, house prices tend to be reasonable.

Zeng Mexico: Although you calculate it namely a very agreeable time to buy a house, but many ordinary people catching a await and watch mood, or namely China's economic retrieval may also absence some time, that perhaps along 2009 alternatively by the end of the year while house costs ambition decline.

聂梅生: This is the public's confidence, prefer than a answer of price. So this thing to a unified look. If you have the ability to buy a house, then this knot you will be capable to pay your hand, you do not think almost 2009. 2009 prices may be lower than it is immediately, but does not rule out this range are you looking for fair the price up.

Zeng Mexico: Now the real estate mall downturn, do you think the main problem is what? Is the volume issue, the issue of house prices, or real estate developers likely to damage its own asset strand breaks or problems?

聂梅生: the current real estate market's biggest problem is that buyers, developers, financial institutions, that is banks, which in this triangular relationship among the weakest correlate. I do not think the analysis, the weakest link is the current developer, it's very tight financial chain. Why financial chain tension? That is because the policy has been tight for a year, a keen decline in trading volume. Originally whether in China or real estate in the United States, it is a lever, the lever is a risk of failure, because it is leveraging. United States, the lever is in the failure of the subprime issue, bang it down to grumble, and then the collapse of Lehman. China also has the lever, about 1 to 3,1 to 4 of the lever, the developer just before the lever failure, it will form a capital-strand breaks after a few important problems. Now the situation is very tense, we measured the bit, to the end of 2008 when the Chinese real estate development business capital chain for more than a total of five hundred billion gap. Because such a large funding gap, has begun to shrink in the second half, and do not buy land, and contraction of capital, and postponed construction of housing, and the whole slowed down. Even so, there are five hundred billion. If this does not make up five hundred billion words on the first question will be: non-performing assets, insolvent. No capital, debt has, it has leverage, there must be debt, insolvent on the formation of schedule, it becomes the developer owes the bank. If it is a down payment, a pledge, the bank has a cluster of buyers who roam, it certainly is looking for bank afterwards. This House can not pay you, and I pay the mortgage with the bank how to do? Builders and developers, but also owes the construction corporation owed migrant operators, but also side-tracked by some government taxes and fees, so we formed a very intricate polygonal debt. Then it becomes the case of Hainan. Finally had to buy non-performing assets, the government had shot into the capital, this is our biggest anxiety. But there certainly does not eliminate this from happening.

[Glossary]

non-performing assets

corporate non-performing assets is the web assets of enterprises have already to deal with detriment and secret (monetary) losses, as well as the provisions of the monetary accounting system should mention the impairment of assets not to say a heap of problem assets, the value of expected losses.

non-performing assets of banks mainly refers to non-performing loans, commonly known as bad debts. In other words, bank loans can not be a pre-agreed phase of time, the interest rate to retrieve the principal and interest. Mainly refers to non-performing assets, non-performing loans, containing past due loans (loans to the outstanding term loan), doubtful loans (loans overdue for more than two years) and bad loans (need to justify the loans written-off) three cases. Other also includes real estate and other real estate portfolio.

non-performing assets is not comprised in the normal cash flow of assets, such as the element of long-term debt conspicuous receivables, purchase or creation of sluggish business backlog of supplies and wrong investments.

1998 years later, our assets are divided into In July 1999, the central bank issued a In accordance with the provisions of the People's Bank, now ordinarily extracted from special reserve ratio: 2% interest, secondary 25%, 50% doubtful, 100% loss. After the three types of non-performing assets.

Zeng Mexico: The five hundred billion funding gap is now up on the feasibility will be? Make up the percentage of how many?

聂梅生: In fact, we all know, to make up Zhege liquidity situation, on the one hand manner that you no profit or profit in a very meek circumstances, we should also Fangzaiganjin sell, Zhe Yang recycling cash flow, capital fetter to continue. So now is to protect the capital chain, bankruptcy protection is not the profit is more important than security. Developers do not think about profits, to keep the flow of funds to keep. About this Kaner, maybe in the future you can continue to develop, reinstate healthy. The second is the financial creation, bank loans how reasonable for developers, and then issue bonds. On the other hand, on land, the Government also carried out the previous high re agreement re-structured. I think such a multi-pronged approach, this five hundred billion gap problem is to gradually resolved.

[Glossary]



residential flats has been handling land use is residential flats, blueprinting procedures, the project started, due to inability to continue to provide in developers creating or into debt disputes, go stoppages over a year of real estate projects. Usually due to lack of government permission of real estate projects and project examination of lack of funds could not be completed real estate projects. In increase, for of property squabbles, the quality of the project failed for reasons such as suspension of the project, but also counted as residential flats.

more reasons for the formation of residential flats, for instance: real estate developers in the construction of bankruptcy,cheap mbt shoes, lack of construction funds, projects related to economic disputes, which led to project developers illegal work stoppage, and so on. Which is mostly because the capital chain fracture, unfinished projects, developers must take no money, banks are disinclined to continue lending, but they can not migrate the project to other investors, but unfortunately the uncompleted project nude in the hot sun, antagonism the air rain. There are many such examples, and disposal of residential flats, and then became a local government long-term

Because real estate is capital-intensive industry, accordingly, residential flats often occupied by a lot of money, including a large number of loan funds. Thus, banks are constantly the largest debtor, who is also the largest straight break. Bank interest income not only losses, but also very feasible loss of headmaster is the bank's bad assets.

residential flats have demolished the city's image, consume of land resources, which undermine the confidence of investors and other risks.

Zeng ink: how long it takes to solve the problem? 26 of these countries need more policy took effect about a long time?

聂梅生: I think the nation 26 and before the presentation of some policies are out late at least a quarter. I think the first quarter of 2009, the market will slowly approach a accordance. To the second quarter, will see it the course toward a rational, we are called to elect up 也好. It is moving towards a current platform, surely not in 2008 and 2007, the fable repeated. I think that in 2007 China's real estate is very natural, for skyrocketing in 2009, the scenery is indeed not. You reckon the profit will understand, have to not be profit in 2007; not going to think that housing prices swoop in 2008, I think 2009 would not be so diving. Should turn the page, there will be a new poise, new health development.

People's government to stabilize the real estate market functions; Fifth, to strengthen the real estate market monitoring; 6, to actively create a good atmosphere for public opinion.

Zeng Mexico: the introduction of the real estate policy, many people have called the New Deal. Although you think that it was issued in a morsel late, but from the outlook of the policy itself, it's nought new in the end how much? Is not the lack of other policies to encounter and subserve the development of the real estate market?

聂梅生: I always say it is the New Deal, New Deal, What are they? Is the set of policies for 2007 is. Because 2007 is under implementation to resolve the economy's tight monetary policy, anti-overheating. In this case, you put a lot of policy, the equivalent of dragging an atmosphere raid, we all hurried into the asylum, because you absence tight thing. The economic situation in 2008 has been completely not the case, have changed the multinational and domestic. You have to relax, elevate fears,MBT Wingu Shoes, so I think the New Deal in 2007, equivalent to compare behavior. 2007 All constricting, tightening of policy by 2008, all easeful, relaxed after the re-development of new. Now at this stage, I average the policy is almost behind to 2006, but the market has not returned in 2006. In the on has a number of new policies, such as financial. China's financial system I think it is the slowest, this time in real estate issues, precisely in the financial sector in an unprecedented detaching. For instance, lending on the two suites on the first suite to cultivate the housing and honor policy, and made it clear that combinations and gains, as well as bonds, corporate bonds, and so on. More important is the real estate investment confidences, the financial innovation we look forward to 4 years.

Zeng Mexico: Is there something you think the policy should be introduced, to appendix or stimulate the real estate development?

聂梅生: I think there are. I think this is a lack of adjustment in the real estate policy together: land. You see, out of the six, but also out of some, but all the financial and security rooms, etc., for the market out of the policy should be more complete. But the land is no activity. In fact I always thought that 2007 was the worst year for China's real estate, is the interaction of land and capital markets turn up, resulting in the country to the king, resulting in more valuable than cake flour, which is caused by land . Now the situation is not should rethink this high land prices have soared to the king to form the auction price, the suitability of the situation in China? Why are frequent Liupai 2008, 2007, rush to the king? Should we not muse cautiously what, so some of our current land system, land policy, the New Deal necessary? I think too necessary. System on land, in particular, that a land merit increment tax, land prices in 2007, you receive value-added tax is right. But in 2008 the land unsold, prices dropped, I guess 2009 did not rise anew as in 2007. Impairment of land, you must charge VAT, but terminal settlement, you have no tax impairment? Land prices in the mow now, why should companies continue to receive value-added tax on the development of it? This referee is a problem, but also impairment of value of land is not it! Policies like this, I think there's apartment for further adjustment, and look inward to the land policy should have some movement.

[Glossary]

Liupai

land unsold land is land out of the citizen authorities to enter the market auction, purchasers bid as too low, or no bids, leading to the phenomenon of land out there is no auction. In the real estate market is good land Liupai phenomenon does not exist, only a shortage of funds the real estate market, housing developers, financial chain leading to pawn not to connect the circumstances will the land unsold.

2007 years antecedent the real estate market was booming, there is no land Liupai phenomenon, but rather to the king, and even some of the land surface district is higher than the floor district, that area of ​​land than in the same unit price mansion lots priced even higher. Into the winter after the real estate market, many buyers began to wait and see, investors have retreated the real estate market, developers can not sell the house, certainly no money to buy land, but also in market expectations is not a bad case of the developer will damage the auction, resulting in many formerly hot lots of land no one is bidding, or bidding beneath the reserve price of the phenomenon, not auction off the land, that is unsold.

Zeng ink: that in the future when there are signs of what, we can determine the real estate market began to pick up?

聂梅生: I think the maximum important transactions. I said the first half of 2008, do not stare at price, the transaction is more important than price! Why? Because there are no market transactions, the market economy is the transaction, there is no buyer-seller How can a market economy? Which can produce a transaction price among the dealer to the buyer to find a balance. First half of 2008, the Beijing market is called However, if the volume recovery, and that the market is restored, there can not be So high low price in the end, only to restore its volume to a certain extent, it can be said that this price is correct or incorrect. So the maximum important is to restore confidence and restore consumer confidence in trading volume to be up, consumption this must be supported together. So this is a lot of policy in the consumer. Volume up, gradually restored the confidence of the market possible return to normal.

Zeng Mexico: real estate market for stimulating domestic demand, primarily for 2009, China's macro to If the real estate market is not able to restart it,

聂梅生: I think melodrama a certain role, which is why Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council executive conference to re-raised, is an important pillar of the real estate industry. This would have been not to mention a pair of years. I said a few diagrams. Dan Zhao a real estate consumer, a Dan Zhao investment. 2009 is necessary to mushroom investment, but also to defend consumers, because you must With such an mind we first said the consumer. Consumption, which it accounts for how much? You see people buy a house bought in 2007 how much? 3 trillion. In 2007 our all retail consumer merchandise is the absolute amount? 10 trillion. Money to buy a house expense accounted for 30% of you said that important? If all the banks to 3 trillion, and are Bengzhuo not buy, and this shows that China is spending power. Deposits are 20 trillion now, there are 3 trillion in 2007 to buy a house, may be a few trillion in stocks, both full-back out today, and into a 20 trillion in the bank. Look at the investment, which accounts for 20% of urban and rural fixed assets investment to 25%. Therefore, investment and consumption is the number two, which do not line it less and less of what the Chinese economy on the side. China and then find a second industry, to support such a large consumer, can support such a large investment, and only real estate, it is ranked first. Besides real estate with the financial relationship, it is surrounded the proportion of financial assets. Bank of China's real estate accounted for 20 percentage of profits. Therefore, the present situation, economy, security 2009, real estate, at least not able to form a falling brim. Let us not how to support it, first do not shrink, do people not to buy a house, and then sing empty. Of lesson, the people the right not to buy, developers have the right to do? It is the right not to invest, do not buy land. Consumer side of ordinary people to pull down, I do not buy a house; if necessary sold the house, how do I invest? Developers will invest some pressure down. Both go on to more difficulty, the whole economy, This coupled with banks on both sides of the relationship they have and the bank will be a great hazard that such a relationship.

Zeng Mexico: If as you say, will not be like 2009, 2007, as Taiwan reside, we would not have such a radical drop in 2008, then for the 2009 volume and price trend, you have a common judge it?

聂梅生: I think the slow recovery in prices on a new platform. Of course, the file from the Bureau of year, in 2009 prices is definitely down. Now the problem here. You see the land in 2009, regardless of the land of no policy, it will not so high as in 2007, will not be so high to the potentate, right? It will continue in 2008 that Liu Pai, the cheap command. Now is basically the low bid, then the low point, 0.9,0.8 so successful there, it means that land prices down. Second, the price of iron in 2009. Why are house prices do not fall down, because these cover a house, just the iron, cement and non-ferrous metal prices are very high when the cover, so now is drip out of the house to sell can not. 2009, you see how much lower steel prices, price reduction, and land prices drip, and Chien price reduction, fatigue cost price drop, taxes also dropped by. In such a tidied-up under the platform, there will be a new price. And this new price, does not mean that the profits of developers certainly have compression. Although not as high as 2007, it is not like 2008, some developers are diving. 2009 profits can not be negate, it will have causativeable range, there is a rational range of the profits. So this time the composition of the price, it would be causativeable price. The emergence of this price, I guess it is a gradual process which may occur in the second half of 2009 a new price. We are trying to go in the intention of this balance,MBT Moto Shoes, but the prelude is to form a balanced front to solve the problem out. You are not resolved, we all dead over this last price would not exist.

[Postscript]

National Bureau Bulletin, November 2008, China's national housing climate index was 98.46%, 1.22 points lower than in October, likened with the same period in 2007. down 8.13 points, which is the 12th consecutive month index fell. China Index Research Institute executive vice president Huang Yu predicted, the real estate market situation in 2009 will be more caustic in 2010 will be improved.