| Back to logs list
Reprinted from 172782390 at 21:42 on August 3 2010 read (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
Merrill Lynch's Economic cycle will be divided into four distinct phases --- recession, recovery, overheat and stagflation. Each stage corresponds to the market performance over a particular asset class: bonds, equities, commodities and cash.
in recession, economic stagnation, excess capacity and falling commodity prices driven by lower inflation, weak corporate profits and the actual return rate. Central Bank cut short-term interest rates to stimulate the economy, leading to a sharp downward yield curve. At this point, the bond is the best choice.
in the recovery stage, played a role in soothing the policy, GDP growth accelerated, and in the potential above. However, the inflation rate continued to decline, as production capacity has not yet run out of vacant,
gucci shoes, the periodic expansion of productive capacity has become strong. Corporate profits increased sharply, bond yield was low, but the central bank remains accommodative policy. Equity investors at this stage is the
in hot phase, slower growth in production capacity, begin to face capacity constraints and inflation rise. The central bank will raise interest rates in order to pull the economy back onto sustainable growth path, this time in the GDP growth rate is still firmly on the potential. Uplink and the yield curve flattens, bonds, very bad performance of the stock's return on investment depends on the strong profit growth and valuation weighed against the declining ratings. At this point, commodities is the best choice.
the stagflation phase, GDP growth dropped below potential, inflation rate continued to rise, partly because of this situation is usually attributed to the oil crisis. Decline, and enterprises to raise prices to maintain profitability, leading to wage - price spiral up. Only such a peak in inflation over the central bank to ease monetary, which limits the bond market to pick up the pace. At this point, deteriorating corporate earnings, stock performance is very poor, cash is the best choice.
quarter in the second quarter of stagflation -2008 phase, the third quarter of 2008 -2008 in the fourth quarter of recession.
2005 fourth quarter to the second quarter of 2007, economic recovery up, moderate inflation up, the four assets, the stock is the best investment assets, A-share market has experienced an unprecedented bull market, the Shanghai index points from 1000 rose to nearly 4,000 points.
third quarter of 2007 -2007 in the fourth quarter period of economic overheating, high economic growth, inflation level is high level, and continue upward, all types of assets in commodities is the best investment targets, although the stock In the third quarter of 2007 was still staged a The performance of bonds for the shock this time, there is no strong trend emerged, the strongest performance of bulk commodities, crude oil prices continued upward. Starting in 2008, crude oil prices, such as a runaway horse, and quickly break through 100 U.S. dollars per barrel rose to $ 140 all the way over.
first quarter of 2008 -2008 in the second quarter of the stagflation phase, cash is a better investment target, when Of course, this time the subject of oil is also a good investment.
third quarter of 2008 -2008 in the fourth quarter of the economic recession, economic growth fell sharply, easing inflation pressures, CPI continued downward, the Government has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, this time Bond is the best investment assets . Starting from August 2008, bonds rose sharply, pulled up all kinds of straight bond index.
this year should pay attention to the stock and commodity
2009 years, we see that inflation is not a problem, CPI in the history of the bottom of the second half of last year, bond prices extended gains can not start turning down. Along the
In fact, since 2009, to enter, A shares indeed ample liquidity driven rally staged a wave. So, in the present circumstances, the stock is still a good investment assets? We feel that the key issue is whether the liquidity support of the stock market fundamentals support the stock market to evolve, after all, the most fundamental support the stock market or economic fundamentals. According to the investment clock theory, is currently in the juncture of the economic recession and recovery, as Along the While we can not determine the lowest point of the bear market, but it is certain that along the
Merrill Lynch's
economic cycle will be divided into four distinct phases - recession, recovery, overheat and stagflation. Each stage corresponds to the market performance over a particular asset class: bonds, equities, commodities and cash.
in recession, economic stagnation,
真的能懂吗？ - Qzone日志, excess capacity and falling commodity prices driven by lower inflation, weak corporate profits and the actual return rate. Central Bank cut short-term interest rates to stimulate the economy, leading to a sharp downward yield curve. At this point, the bond is the best choice.
in the recovery stage, played a role in soothing the policy, GDP growth accelerated, and in the potential above. However,
gucci outlet, the inflation rate continued to decline, as production capacity has not yet run out of vacant, the periodic expansion of productive capacity has become strong. Corporate profits increased sharply, bond yield was low, but the central bank remains accommodative policy. Equity investors at this stage is the
in hot phase, slower growth in production capacity, begin to face capacity constraints and inflation rise. The central bank will raise interest rates in order to pull the economy back onto sustainable growth path, this time in the GDP growth rate is still firmly on the potential. Uplink and the yield curve flattens, bonds, very bad performance of the stock's return on investment depends on the strong profit growth and valuation weighed against the declining ratings. At this point,
gucci heels, commodities is the best choice.
the stagflation phase, GDP growth dropped below potential,
精选28条经商之道和生意十忌 - Qzone日志, but inflation continues to rise, partly because of this situation is usually attributed to the oil crisis. Decline, and enterprises to raise prices to maintain profitability, leading to wage - price spiral up. Only such a peak in inflation over the central bank to ease monetary, which limits the bond market to pick up the pace. At this point, deteriorating corporate earnings, stock performance is very poor, cash is the best choice.
investment clock theory in A-share market to be verified.
We
fourth quarter of 2005 -2007 of the second quarter is defined as the economic recovery phase, the third quarter of 2007 -2007 in the fourth quarter period of economic overheating, the first quarter of 2008 -2008 in the second quarter of stagflation phase, 2008 -2008 in the third quarter in the fourth quarter of recession.
2005 fourth quarter to the second quarter of 2007, economic recovery up, moderate inflation up, the four assets, the stock is the best investment assets, A-share market has experienced an unprecedented bull market, the Shanghai index points from 1000 rose to nearly 4,000 points.
third quarter of 2007 -2007 in the fourth quarter period of economic overheating, high economic growth, inflation level is high level, and continue upward, all types of assets in commodities is the best investment targets, although the stock In the third quarter of 2007 was still staged a The performance of bonds for the shock this time, there is no strong trend emerged, the strongest performance of bulk commodities, crude oil prices continued upward. Starting in 2008, crude oil prices, such as a runaway horse, quickly rose to break through 100 dollars and 140 dollars along the way over.
first quarter of 2008 -2008 in the second quarter of the stagflation phase, cash is a better investment target,
gucci handbags outlet, when Of course, this time the subject of oil is also a good investment.
third quarter of 2008 -2008 in the fourth quarter of the economic recession, economic growth fell sharply, easing inflation pressures, CPI continued downward, the Government has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, this time Bond is the best investment assets . Starting from August 2008, bonds rose sharply, pulled up all kinds of straight bond index.
should be noted that, For example, in the third quarter of 2007 phase of economic overheating, the stock has continued the upward inertia, and the formation of the bull market top. In the first quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of stagnation stage,
cheap gucci shoes, although the subject of cash is a better investment, but investment in commodities is also a good target.
2009 years, we see that inflation is not a problem, CPI in the history of the bottom of the second half of last year, bond prices extended gains can not start turning down. Along the
from a liquidity point of view, the excess liquidity to support the stock market rise. Since November 2008, credit growth is rapidly increasing, new credit 477 billion yuan in November, December to reach 771.8 billion yuan, while January 2009 is as high as 1.62 trillion, an increase of 814.1 billion yuan.
driven by growth in loans, in December 2008 M2 rose 17.82%, higher than the previous year an increase of 1.08 percent, 3.02 percentage points higher than the previous month end. January 2009, M2 increased by 18.79%,
CCTV禁播 - Qzone日志, higher than the previous year an increase of 0.97 percentage points.
In fact, since 2009, to enter, A shares indeed ample liquidity driven rally staged a wave. So, in the present circumstances, the stock is still a good investment assets? We feel that the key issue is whether the liquidity support of the stock market fundamentals support the stock market to evolve, after all, the most fundamental support the stock market or economic fundamentals. Capital markets and the relationship between economic fundamentals and the owner of a dog similar to the relationship between the long term, the dog will not advance from his master, this step is not before the dog will still go back; if the owner to keep up, the puppy will move on. The future trend of the economic fundamentals of different views is where the main differences between long and short sides. According to the investment clock theory, is currently in the juncture of the economic recession and recovery,
gucci sunglasses 2011, because the investment clock is clockwise rotation. Investment along the direction of the clock, we should be concerned about equity assets - stocks. While we can not determine the lowest point of the bear market, but it is certain that the clock along the direction of investment, the stock is the next best investment assets.
Hybrid Mode
