TTS Newsletter no.8
-------------------- WELCOME & CONTENTS-------------------- Hello afresh, and acceptable aback to your fortnightly newsletter from theoffices of TrainerTrackStats. Having enjoyed a (very) extended festive break (actually I've been alive on addition activity, but added of that indue course...), I'm pleased to be back with added news and angle from the apple of jumps antagonism.In this issue: - Review back endure newsletter - System angle: "Grand National Early Bird Preview" - Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats - The TTS Joke... - Tomorrow's qualifiers------------------------------ REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER------------------------------I'm captivated to report that after a aeon fact the doldrums, area we seemed to accept moreseconds than Billy Bunter, TTS is now able-bodied and absolutely back among the winners.Since I wrote to you, much has happened in the main balloon events to shake up the markets, and yet - to these eyes, at atomic - things are appealing abundant as they were...Last time, I gave a big shout for a horse alleged Exotic Dancer (you can see what I said in this area of newsletter 7 at
www.TrainerTrackStats.com/newsletters)I don't mind administration with you that I have a whopping ��13.46 on him to win the Gold Cup. Perhaps more interesting is the odds I have, which are 84.66/1. What did we ever do beforeBetfair?!!Now I know this is crowing before the accident and that bet is worth annihilation (or what I can layit off at, at least), but I strongly fancy him to beat Kauto Star in March.He wasn't baffled far by that battling at Kempton on a clue that I mentioned endure time wouldn'tsuit, and over the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham last time he put to bed any doubts about hisstamina, waltzing through in customary fashion to batter some accurate stayers in Old Vic and Halcon Genelardais (a Welsh National champ!).To be honest, I don't know where the stamina doubts came from. I beggarly, he'd won appealing much ina amble of 3 miles in the Paddy Power for Heaven's sake.I'm not abiding about the Irish this year, and they'd have to be feared, but I account a safe conveyance is appealing much assured from Exotic Dancer (and I bet Kauto at Cheltenham last year, if he fell...) and I can't see him out of the anatomy.Incidentally, afore I assuredly nail the casket of Exotic Dancer's Gold Cup chance, I have himfor a place at just over 8/1 too!Elsewhere, the Champion Hurdle looks like being one of the best renewals for abounding a continued year. There are any amount of pretenders searching to footfall up to the plate and, despite my naysayingabout Detroit City, he continues to accomplish. As chiefly, the form of the chase I cribbed asa graveyard for Champion Hurdle hopefuls (previous year's Triumph Hurdle) looks bedrock solid withBlazing Bailey and others advocacy it.However, this chase has been farmed in recent years by the Irish, and I apprehend to go beyond the sea already more. I'm just not abiding with which horse!My affection says Hardy Eustace (or Hardly Useless, as I atrociously refer to him), as he was bisected ofmy better anytime win if he won the Champion and Kicking King won the Gold Cup a brace ofyears ago.But,
Atlanta Falcons jerseys, strictly on anatomy, its hard to ignore the run of Macs Joy, who accomplished a close up thirdbehind Hardy and the well backed Brave Inca. Macs wasn't baffled far in the Champion last year,and looks to be the improver I'd wish to be on. But, like I say, its a aperture watering chase forsure.Finally, in my Cheltenham fancies section, I want to give a mention to a horse trained by a guy Iflagged in TTS as a man to absolutely follow, Alan King. The horse is alleged Katchit, and he'san complete star.He will win the Triumph Hurdle. If you know your racing, you'll knoW what an alien statementthat is (the Triumph usually has 30+ runners, any number of which are absolutely unexposed,
Florida Marlins Jerseys!). Butthe way this horse travels in his races, then quickens; the form he's apparent in beating his majormarket rivals (except Degas Art, who will never beat Katchit in a true run race); and his courseand distance form at Cheltenham, mark Katchit down as a strong bet in my book. He'll be taken on by Mountain and Lounaos for favouritism on the day, and I wouldn't admonish rushingto grab a price on Katchit appropriate now (he may be longer than his current 13/2 on the day),but I think he is the bet. (By the way, with the barring of Lounaos, the Irish are weak this year. This horse is, in my view, the arch blackmail to Katchit.)---------------------------------SYSTEM ANGLE: Aintree Early Bird!---------------------------------This may sound like more abstruse tosh from the TTS aperture, but - believe it or not - the AintreeGrand National is one of the best stats races in the year!And today, I'm traveling to share with you why, and my thoughts on the shortlist at this time.First of all the 'why'. The Grand National is a different test for a horse in a number of ways: - No other race has so many horses lining up - No added race is run over such an acute ambit - No added race has the Aintree fences (with the exception of contest at the track of advance) - No other race offers such much prize money and acclaim (attracting some very classy horses) - No other race is affirmed to be run at a frantic pace from the outset - No French race is run over anything like this distance (French breds don't stay the trip!)The stats angle for the race says to chase the logic. This agency that we're searching for: - a proven stayer (won over 3m+); - a reliable jumper (less than two avalanche in the last two seasons), and at least into his third division jumping; - a horse that has won in a field of at least 12; - a horse mature abundant to win the race, but not past his best (age-old 8-12); - a horse in the handicap able (i.e. scheduled to backpack 10-00 or more - this is catchy as the weights are yet to be appear); - a horse with accurate class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or bigger); - a horse who was not bred in France (some have run abutting,
Toronto Blue Jays Jerseys, none have won...);and, - Pay special absorption to the Irish (abnormally if they've been hurdling!); and, - Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fencesThere, its not rocket science is it!So, by using these factors, we bound cut the Grand National acreage of 119 down to size. (Actually, at this stage of the season, I usually acquiesce one of the above form criteria to be broken. So a horse can still win in a field of 12+ say afore April. However,
Tiffany Rings, a horse will still be 7 if he is now, so misses the cut; a French bred will still be a French bred, so misses the cut, etc.).Applying the criteria aloft manually (so absolve any mistakes I may have fabricated), I believe we are left with a(very) abbreviate account of eight horses. They're listed beneath in no particular order, along with any comments:Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weightGraphic Approach - Run some eye communicable races for his acute trainer who went close with Mely MossNaunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit. Entered in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th FebCloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland, has been running in hurdles, but may have to carry too much weight?Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival champ for very shrewd trainer,
Tampa Bay Rays jersey, hampered when unseated last year, been runningin hurdles races back Grand National '06Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races prominently and all-overs well, so will give a run for money. Doubtfulstayer though, alas.Numbersixvalverde - Last year's winner, and been racing in hurdles since. Handicapper will apparently make it verydifficult for last year's hero to repeat the accomplishment.Silver Birch - my big ante-post action last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser accepted Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cantankerous country race at Punchestown last weekend.From these, I would wish to be with Point Barrow (16/1), Graphic Approach (100/1), Naunton Brook(40/1), and Dun Doire (16/1).I'll bring a revised view nearer the time, when other horses may have able, and the weights have been appear.------------------------------COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS------------------------------The main acumen for the delay in sending out this newsletter is that I have been slavishly labouring on my new project, TrainerFlatStats. As the name suggests, its the same concept but for the flat season alpha in March.I've really enjoyed the feedback from you,dear readers, over the course of the winter, and some of the commentsyou've made deserved to be aggregate with a wider admirers. For this acumen, there will be a blog affection on the flatsite, which will alter my periodic newsletters. The agreeable there will of course be much more current, and - best of all - it will be absolutely interactive, meaning youcan allotment your thoughts with other readers. [Please keep them clean!]More on TFS in the next newsletter...-------------THE TTS JOKE-------------I hope this doesn't apply to any of you, dear readers....!The abiding horse amateur paused before taking his place at the betting windows, and offered up a fervent prayer to his Maker. "Blessed Lord," he muttered with acute sincerity, "I know you don't accept of my bank, but this once, Lord, just this already, amuse let me break even. I charge the money so badly."-------------------------------------TOMORROW'S TRAINERTRACKSTATS RUNNERS-------------------------------------Below are tomorrow's TTS qualifiers, accountable to getting 14/1 or shorter in the market:Huntingdon1.40 Old Benny Four For A Laugh2.10 Anshabil2.40 Nenuphar Collonges3.40 Golden Feather4.40 Rose Of The Shires Southern ExitTaunton2.20 Farmers Lad Oncle Bul2.50 Be Be King Rare Gold Rowlands Dream3.20 Magical Quest If you'd like to receive these selections chargeless for a anniversary, artlessly log on to
www.TrainerFlatStats.com/subscribeand follow the link for your FREE 7 day trial.Well, thats about all for this belated copy of the TTS newsletter. So, until next time, sincerely wishing you bloom, abundance and happiness.Best RegardsMatt
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