Crisis is the criterion - the United States to send the crisis dollar global calamity the second time after the eruption of the crisis in the world, economists, Greenspan was derided junk dollars. But everybody knows, the Greenspan era of the United States - a country to rely on credit, corporate credit and expanding consumer credit and stimulate economic growth in the United States, can send to the world, must be the cycle of the bubble economy. By financial markets because of the dominance by the U.S. dominance in international trade big money, easy money and spur economic growth, the United States, the best way is to continue to create a bubble.
Thus, for other countries, as long as the market fully open and entirely with the International (U.S.) criteria (using the same market rules), that the country's market to U.S. will be flooded, the final of the country's foreign exchange reserves - - is regarded as a wealth of all countries, under the collection of years of hard dollars, not only in price heaves and falls was seethe dry, or even debt owed to a butt that bankrupt the nation.
2004, the helpless Alan Greenspan have changed the style of obscure and remove that in present circumstances, only again and again to proceed to lower amuse rates, the debt to nourish the U.S. economy,
GHD Carry Case Styler, the United States only With the fashionable spume.
Greenspan said the bubble. But now it has been shattered, but quite possible the United States, the
In fact, even greater than in the U.S. real estate bubble. Deficits accumulated over the years constitute a bubble Intersection of all bubbles eventually became a
the U.S. economic model of such a special damage and to others, but generally speaking: sinful tiny more damage. Including the United States today, this surface, but actually Still can not tell, but the fact is that the entire earth to disburse as it, and pay because other countries outdoor the United States far more than the U.S. total; fact also tells us that the emergency in the appreciation of greenback against the euro memorandum European economy in emergency, it aches more than the United States; facts will further show that many amplifying countries will be placed ashore the corner of bankruptcy.
lesson, the reckoning is now also early to say who wins, but it is certain that the crisis is going through the grief to the world, either width and depth, will be far more than at anybody time, including the first After the dollar crisis and the global economy in 1929, the Great Depression.
slow sword meat - Alan Greenspan
2000 the Internet bubble explode, the Fed began to cut interest rates, depreciation of the dollar embarked on the road, starting from the eclipse of hyperinflation enveloped the world. In fact, the depreciation of the dollar against the U.S. dollar reserves held by countries, the same as in the
However, the dollar will inevitably lead to dissimilar solemn consequence: the world do not want to hold dollar reserves, or even to sell the dollar, and if so, the dollar will breakdown; if other countries give up the dollar as the international accommodation money, will outcome in breakdown of the U.S. economic model of debt, and ultimately go bankrupt.
Greenspan should be watched as early as this hazard, but he can not supply to back days. This contradictory state of idea, but also granted to talk often contradictory. Such as the January 13, 2004 in Berlin, Germany, the EU threatened Greenspan said the dollar appreciation of the euro will ultimately lead to economic recession in Europe. He even tensioned that the U.S. new account shortage is not a problem, but also
comments seemed to say might reverse the
by American savants say, Alan Greenspan only He only wishes the consecutive depreciation of U.S. dollar to reduce the debt burden of the United States, but also must ensure that the world will not cause depreciation of the dollar against the U.S. dollar sell-off of assets. If all of the U.S. bubble, according with inflationary pressures into account, that the vulnerability of the U.S. economy is even more serious.
to defuse the rising inflationary oppressions, strengthening the world's confidence in the dollar, which requires the Fed can not be identified by low interest rates, but high interest rates and simple to lead the U.S. dollar, increasing U.S. debt burden, and even pierce the growing domestic The real possession bubble; that lower interest rates go? No good. Although it can hold the real possession bubble, will reduce the debt burden, inflationary oppressions, the world's confidence in the dollar will be affected.
shows how hard the Fed. Greenspan may only use some obscure language to express their will, carefully weigh the use of financial policy to cope with, as far as possible to avoid the occurrence of utmost conditions. However, this wire can go far?
Bernanke took over after the quickened rise in U.S. interest rates. In 2007, the last rate hike ahead Bernanke, Greenspan advised that he believed that the U.S. economy will be big difficulty, but Bernanke did not hear, while he rose to 5.5% interest rate, the bubble economy burst in the U.S. is irreversible.
the blame Bernanke it? I'm terrified not! As the saying goes,
2000 the euro was born, there was another world can replace the dollar as international reserve currency, an economy of scale to contend for the U.S. economic zone. This is no doubt the dollar's position in the international settlement system has been seriously challenged.
2003, the Chinese Lunbafeite the premier time I began to clutch foreign currencies - that is dished out U.S. dollars to buy euros, the euro's location gradually increased to 200 billion U.S. dollars.
Lunbafeite not just China, along to ) The latest statistics show that the fourth quarter of 2007, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in 8 years; the same time, the euro reserves surged from 0% to 25.8%. China Lunbafeite said: typical of the dollar crumbling, when the subprime mortgage crisis into a
how the United States do? The world how to do?
save the property market, to retention the stock market, retention foreign exchange, save the banks, save the industry ... ... almost all aspects of the economy need to be saved, and all countries not only to save themselves, but also aided save the United States. But we must see clearly that the final sequel of emancipate, and perhaps only the U.S. economy
others and themselves more harm - whether the U.S. crisis in the world, This means that if the crisis to other economies underwent a more serious blow than the United States, then, while the dollar will depreciate, but at all times the euro, yen, yuan and other currencies than the dollar more, from the point of view the exchange rate The dollar appreciated against other currencies remains, still to keep the world's confidence in the dollar.
the euro is the case. Since 2000, the U.S. dollar, and the subsequent campaign in Iraq, has given course to Europe in the global surge in commodity amounts had ample headaches. Not only there is no uniform euro area fiscal policy and a unified administrative capability, and the countries of the region in mandate to maintain the balance of interests, they also have to deficit countries, the trade deficit and other economic arrows of the implementation of imperative, which makes the euro area in the , control inflation
accordingly the eurozone, the U.S. dollar, the euro appreciation of the process, on one hand reasoned by the depreciation of the dollar shoved up inflation in the euro zone commodity prices, suppress their own consumption; the other hand, the appreciation of the euro suppression of the euro district exports to the U.S., the euro zone's deteriorating economy. Today, the dollar crisis again, which makes the process of the euro's appreciation, amassed a large number of euro space financial investment in the United States suddenly became a bad debt, liquidity of financial creations are seriously threatened, or even bankruptcy.
This is the reality of the euro zone's economic and financial situation a little better than the United States is good, but not ample means to rescue the economy - through the so-called This is not depreciated against the dollar crisis, rose, rose against the euro does not depreciate the reason why.
This is surely the most compliant to see the United States. If the euro zone, Japan and other major economies, the recession more severe than the U.S., that means the dollar will continue to have a strong position, the U.S. economy can continue to extend the debt, but also for changes in U.S. economic architecture reform, or win precious time.
how to deal with U.S. crisis
China can say with certainty that the situation of the Chinese economy is now much better than the United States, but no reason to fall into the plight of the United States. However, if you do not carefully knob manifold issues, not modified accordingly, will increase the risk of the Chinese economy, and even into the social instability and, ultimately, is at a critical period of social and economic evolution of China's harm.
China's response - to adjust the investment tactics to strengthen national confidence course
China's numerous conducive conditions, merely fair do not make full and nice, extra importantly, must ensure effective use.
one, by reversing the nation's stock and attribute markets is anticipated to strengthen confidence.
However, this confidence is not only the confidence in the Government, but too the confidence of citizens. That is, the more confident people, the speed up investment, more spending, the economy will obtain better and better - so a chaste surround; the contrary, the more people do not have confidence, the less investment, the less expense, the economy will increasingly worse - that would be a vicious circle.
must be clear to see that China's economy is hovering in a watershed, a diversity of statistical economic data show that the economic prospects of the Chinese people expected (confidence) is moving toward the negate, it is very easy for the Chinese economy into a vicious circle, which is a very terrible thing.
also need to see that the suppression of citizen confidence in the maximum straight and serious, than the inert stock and property markets, and to restore citizen confidence,
GHD IV Styler, it must start from these two major markets. This is also the most efficient means. From the current policy outlook, central government is conscious and has taken corresponding fathom.
Second, the financial investment is best done through the Social Security Fund. In terms of the current economic situation, through financial investment to stimulate economic growth mandatory. However, some of the risk should be less stable earnings - the best financial investment projects completed by the social security fund, to minimize direct government investment.
many benefits of act so. First of all, the Chinese government actually reflect the elementary specifics of a people's government, and further to win the aid of people and consolidating the party's honor; Secondly, the best items to complete the social security fund is to transfer benefits to people cross the country, to avert interest Group tournament; third, a lot of money into Social Security accounts, can significantly reduce the national worries, will effectively strengthen their consumption and risk favorites; Fourth, we can make a corporate thing of government investment projects, reducing investment costs, and promote the efficiency of investment; V also fulfilled the government investment economy.
Third, the money transferred from the central bank notes come into the Treasury. China has made a debt equilibrium of treatment, but in view of the past five years, a substantial addition in fiscal revenue, more fiscal extra, so no need to issue short-term treasury bonds for revenue and expenditures and transfers, so that the central bank open market operations, central banks have to issue a great digit of notes, the stock market has been as lofty for 4 trillion yuan hardly ever. The central bank bills is the pith of the citizen debt, but just not being included in the debt balance, but an yearly interest payments, as in need of financial on the head of. This is in fact one sleepy financial resources.
Therefore, at the peak of the equivalent of central bank bills, treasury bonds converted to the corresponding period, where at least 1 trillion yuan in the billion in funding social security fund, commissioned by the central bank operating proceeds of the remaining debt, and continue to open market operations.
,
GHD Midnight Collection, of course, can also be used short-term treasury bonds and central bank bills in collateral ways to make the central bank open market operations efficiency and flexibility of Bu Zhiyu affected by the financial needs.
benefits of doing so is that although increased financial investment, but China does not actually increase the debt ratio.
four, you need to instantly conduct a comprehensive reiterate of the issue of prologue the capital account. The Asian financial crisis, China's capital account is not completely open for the first time to save China; today, or because the capital account is not fully open, the second to China to avoid the caustic impact of the financial crisis. Therefore, we need to be more cautious, wary capital account opening to face the problem, we must ascertain out the current conditions in China have fully open capital account and open a necessity for what it is. To avoid likely future over-exploitation, increase the risk of the Chinese economy.
5, so that exotic exchange reserves to provide in China itself. Given the mobility of U.S. bonds has been greatly dwindled, so, now the exotic exchange reserves to purchase U.S. treasury bonds will be the worst alternative. That what to purchase? To purchase Chinese companies, banks published abroad to U.S. dollars or dollar-denominated assets.
most of these assets have been severely victimizes the market panic, but this time the Chinese government to come amenable repurchase the shares of these companies, the one for less risk of substantial future earnings, and secondly, to encourage the foreign investors confidence in the Chinese capital three to push the international status of China's capital, four overseas for Chinese companies to build favorable conditions for the gain of assets.
opener is liquidity problem. Everywhere you saw, but now, how can the international liquidity and good wealth? Therefore, since the flow is not good, it is better to buy their assets, on the one hand control, and other modifications in servant liquidity of their room for large, high-quality assets, the hereafter of these facilities is undoubtedly the quality of cash parallel . Third, likened with 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange reserves, the 1,000 billion to 2,000 billion worth of assets slightly lower mobility is not a huge problem.
risk of Hong Kong and the machine - no longer do Asian capital markets regain on Wall Street doll pricing
If we see the fundamental ecology of this financial crisis is the down the trade bubble, financial bubble, the debt bubble, industrial bubble, the listed company's financial bubble, housing bubble, user ratings bubble bubbles and so on - a total of all bubbles burst, the total settlement, then we should be recognized, the dollar depreciation and the stock market's decline on Wall Street will not be the end of a short-term trend.
So, A shares Ye Hao, Hong Kong stocks worth saying, it is no reason ever to be dragged down Wall Street.
but the past tells us that the clever speculators borrow the international financial position, once anew cornering Hong Kong into a But the difference is that in 1997, they changed the before offensive s learn, the Hong Kong stock, the Hong Kong commute is the implementation of fantasy.
be playing in the hands of Wall Street's H shares, has now been disgustful, and many stocks have price-earnings ratio of fewer than 1 periods. Meanwhile, H shares are undervalued malicious, and constitutes a strong oppression of A shares. Almost every important investment bank lowered H rating, ambition be reflected in the A shares.
this reason, July 3, 2008 I have been calling out However, the good newspaper is both regrettable and, until today, the Hong Kong Monetary authorities have just begun to take some measures, although the mainland has long been aware of the directors of the problem.
However,
GHD Straighteners, from the recent market trend, the situation changes to the right intention. Direct sign that Hong Kong stocks on Wall Street is attempting to get rid of,
GHD Ireland, out of the independent market. Of course, is still only a relatively languid signs of sustainability? Hard to say, but worth the await. Lee Quo from Wall Street because of Hong Kong.
First, to fight behind only the H shares, A shares have a stable by always. Why? If no one good 1-7 times the price-earnings ratio of H shares to 14 times earnings not been optimistic almost the A shares. Do not mention China's chief market solitude, it is self-deception. It ought be said, whether citizens or aliens, at all times he absences to invest in China stock market, at least in the H shares and A shares give the same attention.
Second, there were only out of Wall Street, as the pricing of Asian companies hold up the banner of the capital,
GHD Gold Classic, could truly become the financial megalopolis of Asia, and now is a great opportunity.
past Hong Kong, despite ample financial professionals, financial facilities, but it is not a financial center. Why do you say, because the core of all financial market behavior and simply: the formation of capital pricing. However, Hong Kong in the past not for any financial productions, pricing, from the Hong Kong stock prices do not have control over Wall Street. So, Hong Kong stocks on Wall Street in the hands of the past is just a doll, a panel of side dishes.
However, now's your become. If Hong Kong can lead the Chinese stock market and even the Asian markets took the lead out of the woods, and through regulatory and other essential means to fully shield the Asian corporate pricing, it must in the upcoming Hong Kong a
the opposed, whether the Hong Kong mart blindly have waited deteriorating left unchecked, or even namely global stock markets are down, Hong Kong has no reason not apt fall, he not only condoned the multinational investors to activity in Hong Kong, more seriously, it will transform stumbling stop to monetary stability, and seriously interfere with the effectiveness of chief plan. Indeed, the economic will be the Chinese people with confidence and tugged into the abyss of the Chinese economy.
Therefore, our financial managers must be aware that Hong Kong's financial market more than just the Hong Kong market, more than Wall Street's financial markets, but about the safety of China's financial market.
of Hong Kong, the opportunity that lies onward. (
China Economic Weekly The United States has gone
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