| Back to logs list
70055 2010 年 04 月 09 日 22:06 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
This article describes the most simple truth the truth about the economy. Will not have any so-called academic prostitutes who used to deceive the people of the esoteric academic theories, but also the fact that the innocent, the truth is only one, let us keep their eyes open, the hole view of what happened today. This article describes the following aspects of China's economic truth.
1, what is economic development? Economic development is simply about money, but the money come from? Money can only be printed. So in the end is what makes non-stop operation of the printing press? Suppose there are 1000 people on an island, isolated, living among people to exchange goods, but sometimes your hand is not necessarily for the exchange of other things you want, how do? So people like to use something in exchange for gold and silver, so the exchange convenient. But gold and silver to be worn, not easy to carry, when the exchange activities between, we found that this thing is too cumbersome, limiting the exchange activities, so in order to solve this problem, think of a way, that is issued by the managers of the island a symbol , use it to replace gold and silver, so the money appeared. The beginning of this note was convertible at any time gold and silver. We are assured, because the money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small, when people exchange activities more frequently, not enough money, and can only suspend the exchange. The consequences of suspension of the exchange is not producing all the things other people want, because while other people use, but the exchange did not go out, to paraphrase the words of the current economic slowdown is a. So we thought of a way to set up a banking house, the banks are all by the banks to issue bank notes, printed notes lend money to people who want to use, then that person money and then returned to the banks. So banks have emerged. The emergence of banks, to ensure a more sustainable exchange activities carried out, we all out of production, more and more things on the island, the number of banks in accordance with the production, stop printing money to ensure that the exchange can be conducted more in-depth . Activity was more frequent exchange of people, and a few banks, so there have been many banks, there must be a pipe banks in it, then specify the management of other banks, a banking house, and the money can only be printed by the banks of this, and then Other banks who lend money, so the central bank also appeared.
2, what is foreign trade? One day on the island who invented the boat, so he ran around boat and found another island, that some people above, there are notes, so the island like their own activities. But they produce many things on the island, the island produced something less, a dollar can buy in their own island, 1 kg of rice, the island's only a dollar to buy half a jin of rice, so the additional money to the island When to buy the island for only 2 yuan 1 yuan Caixing. So the exchange rate has emerged. Considered a good rate, they began trading with each other things to each other on the island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade enriched people's life and production needs, so that exchange activity to an unprecedented climax.
3, what is inflation? As the island too many products that can not accurately estimate how much money in the end the issue, issuing more time, because there are so many products to buy, product prices began to issue less then began to cut prices In order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires all banks make money on the part of the central bank which is used to adjust product prices, according to the price situation and less extra place. This is the deposit reserve ratio. But some smart people how to start their own hands to get the money, he picked up a stone in the sea, saying that the value of 100 million dollars stones, sold it to a person, this person think that the whole island money 100 million with no increase, ah, how to do, so to moneylenders, banks are not so much money, so the printing press opened, printed the 100 million lent he bought the stone. This person then began to sell the stones, sold 100 million second person, as the first stone of the people to spend money to sell, so the island's more money, so you can raise the millions, selling more products to more than With. But this stone to the transfer of 200 million,
cheap ed hardy, when banks only and printed 100 million bank notes, so the more money the more Indian, but when the stone kept the flow of transfer, the more money we do not think the island , as product prices or the original. But when the stone does not flow or circulation is slow, you think more money, but if and when the person holds a stone thrown into the sea it, it equal to nothing out of the island more than 100 million to N, how do , the central bank's most afraid of is the Fengyun stone gone. It is not the island product prices will soar,
ed hardy shop, will inflation. Then the person who held kidnapped stones in the island's economy.
4, house prices could kidnap the Chinese economy? China's real estate has made a lot of China's central bank issued RMB, and if house prices fall, is equivalent to that stone dropped into the sea, so much money to print out the price of Chinese products will soar, inflation will be severe. Prices and stones appear to have no coherent, but their properties are the same, that is, a serious departure from the price and value. In fact the biggest victims of the collapse of real estate is not China's commercial banks, but the entire Chinese economy. Why did not slow down housing prices, not cut down, if you really want to drop prices, just a decree, the real estate prices will collapse overnight. But who can bear the consequences of serious inflation, who is responsible? Real estate industry has kidnapped the Chinese economy is no doubt, is the objective reality, no one can change. No matter who is honest and Ye Hao, corruption, it is all hope of social harmony, but this is a difficult problem.
5, house prices and inflation related? Can be more difficult problem is more here. If the lower prices, faced with inflation immediately, do not drop prices, then the face is more inflation, what next? So the most reliable way is to stabilize housing prices, and then increases in the social product, reduce the amount of money supply, coupled with other policies such as raising interest rates, increase in commercial bank reserve ratio, reducing the size of credit and other aid to the Chinese economy to a soft landing, which is the best way, we see all the decree is also this logic. Do not believe,
ed hardy shirts, you can access to look at the real estate industry in recent years published a series of control measures. But why the soaring house prices and more unstable it? Is the game developer and it? Tell you that no one in China and strong words, the developer of several big belly is not the point of strength. Is actually a black hand behind the scenes in China and another game, this is the black hands of foreign capital, imperialism, represented by the United States to grab people's blood and sweat of the black hand of China.
6, what is the driving force behind rising prices? The power to make a lot of housing prices, housing prices in its favor is one of the drivers who, for example: GDP and personal interests to place, in order to make money for developers, real estate family that bought a house in the so-called slaves Developers as a businessman, in order to earn high profits is not a wicked thing, but all walks of life have businessmen, do not want to make there is it? Unless it is a myth. Real estate developers, too, is not how many there are that many of them want to make. According to the law of value, the price and value when a serious departure, there will be a tendency to suppress the power of the normal price return prices, but the real estate industry in China, this law seems to not work is that it overlooks an important reason a reference range of reasons, the Chinese economy itself, if indeed broken the law, but the current situation is that there is a force in the maintenance of the real estate prices, that is, prop up the market, then who is to shore up the market? Who in the real estate industry to get huge profits out of control person who is propping up the market. Discuss this issue, now look at China's foreign exchange reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves rapidly in recent years a breakthrough by the 1,2 billion trillion, and is growing rapidly, is it the Chinese people work hard, earned it? This does not need proof, look at China's GDP growth rate, we know that foreign exchange reserves significantly greater than the growth rate of GDP growth. Clearly not earned, then in addition to a part of earned, then the so-called International hot money into China market, we must first be converted into yuan, then how can there be so many yuan once it? Only one way is to let the printing presses day and night work, and then the money is used for boosting the hot potato of the real estate market is desperate for investment in real estate, when the value of real estate prices down due to deviate from fluctuations, then it is elevated by propping up the market, repeated that, giving the appearance that the price must not deviate from the value of the property. Lead to higher house prices rose more. And developers do, they get to the house will not sell the time, it was the nose down, how they will cut prices, if not this part of the funds in the operation, not to mention the developer Union, the country is only one developer, the price will come down, no one bought the house such as mold do it? It holds so many high-priced real estate foreign investors to do? Not afraid to hit hands? Not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a suckers at the bottom then it is who? Commercial Bank of China, the hot real estate market, first-class liquidity, decline in recent years have not seen any signs, put the loan on the profit, why not loans? No reason to hold loans. Coupled with the feelings of Chinese people to buy a house, foreign investment can easily be passed on to the Gaojiefang Chinese banks and consumers, and even real estate can earn a share of the farmers, foreign investors will lose money do professional? So house prices have been going up, what will happen?
7, house prices have been going up, developers will laugh or cry? Under what circumstances will laugh? Under what circumstances cry? Intensive in recent years in China, under the control of dozens of gold, prices, or if the horse off the bridle more than the same rush. Putting aside the time to stop the momentum of rise, after all, is still rising house prices, so we will see more than what housing prices. First of all: the GDP rose above that of China in order to maintain the Not as long as the stone of real estate into the open sea, there are some liquidity, then there would be no inflation occurs. Second: the developer is also in the process earn huge profits. Again: to see that the real estate group will make money, buy a house so-called Are making money! But in the end who is in the process lose it? The money come from? If you have a stock of experience will know, if the investment away from the commodity price and value, you lose money is someone else's money, then applied to real estate, that is, people who buy their own homes, and now appears to value-added, It was on the mirror, Stronghold, you do not realize it is not you. There is also the true value when prices return to full time, sometimes even to the true value of what was 高价房 captive investors. Another is the developer! Why do developers have to lose money? We all know the nature of business to make money, make a profit. If the speculation once a businessman never do this business, he is making money, but he is not a business, this does not make sense business practices. Because the nature of business, so the money earned will continue to expand production in the field can continue to make money to invest. This principle can be seen from the life, the more big business is always on call money, due to the greater flow of funds to maintain its expanded reproduction needs. So if house prices return to the real value is that when the day of the collapse of a large number of developers. This is not the will of any person and any act for the transfer. If you now have fled the real estate arena developer, then Paode Man is the final loser. If you do not run, pass like a flower like drumming, and finally got the baton is then set those. There is a saying: Maybe just a different way, just to see who's lucky. But now the developer does not have any signs of losing money, some developers continue to make money, people give money too late. Just because the current prices are still rising, real estate also continued to flow. A huge problem here, so when prices are rising head ah?
8, sitting in a consortium of Wall Street, the office is how they suck blood and sweat of a farmer in China's mountains? Mao said: on behalf of the peace of mankind can be realized? The concept of equality is right, but it is only imperialist trick to deceive people fills said and done will always be two different things. International consortium through the international hot money into China, the renminbi to increase circulation, and through real estate speculation, China's domestic price level to an unlimited increase, GDP growth once again be forced to increase the circulation of RMB. Blackhand ruthless international consortium heart, two-pronged approach is designed to make China's economy to the hot heat, heat to let the crazy people of every Chinese. We will not to care about this process, we look to the future and see the results of this process is like? In other words, the purpose of the consortium is it? Obviously, the Chinese people are most reluctant to see things that are most pleased to see the results of the consortium. Be the first hypothesis, such as international hot money in the investment of Chinese real estate staging area after the last mad, then get out of trouble all the successful realization of real estate, if the exchange rate of renminbi against the dollar at this time to achieve the highest expected the United States, the exchange rate is when the hot money to flee need to multiply that times, what happens anyone can think of, all the hot money will flee U.S. dollar overnight and all. Consortium, we will earn ditch full of trench level, the Chinese market,
ed hardy hats, but money is money that can cover a lot of days,
ed hardy online, the renminbi will become a nightmare for the Chinese people. This is what most want to see, but also most pleased to see the results of the consortium. Recently the United States continued through political, trade and other means to force the appreciation of the RMB, and China does not appreciate or slow the appreciation of small-scale, far short of U.S. expectations, this is the exit of the game between China and the U.S.. Criminal intent to force the United States all too clear appreciation of the renminbi! Incidentally, if we really reached the expected appreciation of the Chinese property market in Japan will be repeated collapse of the last century, the history of 90 years. But at that time will be like Japan, China's economy into a continuous slump of no return. In this issue of national survival and death, it will just do nothing? Even take a step back in terms of a completely irresponsible In such cases, because the capital operation and also violated the interests of the great will desperately counterpulsation. So what kind of China will be the way to resolve this See the next section:
9, at about this price and inflation around the game between the parties may choose the mean line I have always believed: extremes meet, moderation is the solutions to difficult problems left to future generations of our ancestors killer! Since it is a Chinese real estate What is Let's take a look at both sides of the line and kidnapped their own hands the chips. Main body of the real estate industry developers,
ed hardy bikini, so developers operator side, it is vital kidnapped Chinese economy, and that the crucial point of the Chinese economy who is it? The crucial point of the Chinese people, on behalf of the Chinese people, can only be in China. One count of China. Foreign investment it? It is to fan the flames were zoned to the developer side. The power of a Fangyou Gong in China, through taxation, finance, economic policy, administrative means to force developers to camp, camp by a steady stream of developers to reserve funds to kidnap the Chinese economy, and continuously improve the ransom. Problem has been put in here, how to do it? Rushed to the shot and killed, and that non-criminals threatened to kill is not too extreme feasible. So promising a prescription, as long as one can achieve a certain idea of lower prices, as if shot dead, like this is not feasible. Imagine how we save kidnapping, first to stabilize each other's emotional lives, and then step by step close, but close to, although this will cause hostility criminals, but will not cause him threatened to kill, and then further stabilize mood, and then close, then When conditions are ripe, and then steady Accurate, that is, to ensure the safety of the hostages, but also to ensure that criminals winning. This is the real rescue. So moderation is the killer solutions to difficult problems. Extreme, blind, aggressive is undesirable. For how to solve the problem of kidnapping of Chinese real estate market, we should focus on a key part of the problem step by step reaction force applied, and successful, is the right way. The first key part is the exchange rate, China will strictly control the exchange rate relations, we can expect that the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciation will never be too fast, but small appreciation, is to stabilize each other's emotions, and if that does not rise, the other will be cornered, if the rise too fast, is to dig their own grave, so why the increase in China's exchange rate is always still holds partly concealed, with a look at the attitude of the United States how appropriate the kidnappers, I want a bottle of juice, and why used half a bottle of water. What can and can not tell, after all, being able to quench their thirst. The second key is to limit the liquidity of assets, since the real estate to kidnap the Chinese economy, that it is important to limit the liquidity of real estate, you can limit the liquidity of assets, pay attention to two concepts here, real estate liquidity. The two are completely different, but closely related. Weakening real estate liquidity, reduced liquidity, you need to print yuan to decrease. Just as the stone, does not flow right away inflation, price increases circulation without no problem, but does not work, foreign investment does not agree. Since it is constantly rising price of real estate can only restrict the flow step by step, as long as the property less liquidity, inflation will show a little, and then through the reserve ratio increases and interest rates and other flexible policies to adjust the point, with willow cotton silk palm to resolve a Tyson punch, just to soft and Keqiang, of crushing the invisible, which is China's strategy (which is like the Chinese do best.) We can see from the side relevant news media, the property market signing rate is declining, that decline in liquidity, and prices began to rise, such as pork and other staple food products, but once the central bank raised the reserve ratio and interest rates to price stability. I do not know whether you look to see some clues. Can be expected that, to fully resolve the crisis, will continue to raise interest rates and raise the reserve ratio, and liquidity of real estate will become increasingly weak, this prediction is accurate in the future central bank policy verification. Such as complete elimination of economic overheating due to inflation expectations, then that is the true value of real estate when prices return. Whether you see do not see, this is the last crazy, we analyzed two ways: first, to foreign investors if this game ended in victory, then the Chinese economy continues to decline further in Japan 90 years into the abyss, as foreign withdrawal, the survival of the pillars of the housing market collapse, prices will plummet, whether it is available when the developer or the people will bear the pain of economic downturn, the rapid depreciation of the currency held, even if house prices fall, not necessarily buy starting. This is unacceptable and the Chinese people, and it is unacceptable. Second, if foreign investors ended in failure, that is, keeping guard at the exchange rate on exports, so that prices return to the true value, the same set of foreign investment in China, this is the prerequisite of victory. So the consortium led by the U.S. imperialists who will bite the blood revenge, in investment, exports and other parties to put pressure on the face of China. Today, we did not meet U.S. expectations of RMB appreciation, China's exports to the United States has led to products subject to suppression, thereby causing a large number of trade friction, is obvious. We know that the troika of economic development is investment, exports and consumption, investment, export sector retaliation will affect China's economic development, but I believe our development will not affect the speed, do not forget there is a carriage is Ngau Tau engine.
economic price tag what the real estate banks
upcoming the bar
Linear Mode
