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45675 2008 年 12 月 18 日 15:55 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (2) Category: Personal Diary
; not talk about the house seemed sorry my name. Period cottage is the pulse rate of the class after the immediate interests of about 80 hot issues, overlooking the global information, feel the pulse of housing prices. I will be informative, worked tirelessly on three questions: First, who pushed up house prices? Second, why are prices still remain high running? Third, the trend is expected to house prices? Fourth,
paul smith sale, when we shot the purchase?
one, who pushed up house prices? Answer: pigs.
China's population growth and urbanization progress in the past two years there has been no significant speed up, why prices are soaring it? (Opaque housing costs, it is estimated that only about 20% of house prices, and the rest is a gray area in addition to net income) is only one reasonable explanation - needs to be manipulated, and is expected to be misled.
Lang jokingly explains this phenomenon: deteriorating environment, and the property market and real estate is relatively optimistic, if not in time to guide and control, capital to invest in the latter will withdraw a large scale, pushing up stock prices and house prices (.) In turn, the industry's prospects are even worse, once the stock and property markets have changed direction, a lot of fish must be severely punished, there is no chance of profound feelings. Recently, there are eight thousand workers in Guangdong, a toy factory burned because of the closure with the capital stock (on a focus group), is a vivid example.
here may cause deterioration of the environment on the industry to make a brief analysis, as it was forecast for house prices or use. In short,
mulberry bag, a substantial increase in production costs and weak demand from overseas has led to the transfer of industrial capital. Of cost: the introduction of the new labor law and the rapid appreciation of the renminbi is the main reason for increased costs (last year the focus of national macro-control, or prevention of overheating. As an aside , it seems, Steven Cheung, who strongly opposed the introduction of a new labor law makes sense, some multinational companies are transferring their production bases to cheaper places, and now Guangdong and the central theme of Second, over the past year, the BHP Billiton (Rio? Remember) to the price increase iron ore exports to China nearly doubled, to 147 Biao international crude oil prices per barrel and food prices rose Africans began to eat profound event. On the overseas market: If, as Mr Song said, Wall Street as early as the end of 2006 to know the economy must be in big trouble, it was no accident happened to.
Second, the stock market is not bullish, why staying in the property market? A: The pig is waiting for a strong People's Liberation Army.
First of all, for all developers,
designer handbags cheap, consumer psychology chase sell them not slashed prices, it may not reduce the people to buy. Secondly, many follow the trend of late to get into the real estate business to the cost is already high, a substantial price reduction means that the Again, the developer hype a series of, but most people still feel of conformity to that Finally, the central and local policies are more or less a part of confidence to the prescribing provider, such as
Third, the trend of how housing prices? Answer: either diving flesh, or from good to remarry.
Some say that the bubble is the only burst the bubble, meaning, hope to be unreasonable prices, like last year's digest. But now the situation has long been different, if last year was a seller's market, then the next two years, the basic pattern of a seller's market, has become irreversible, requiring people to seriously high levels of excess income to digest a lot of hoarding and the construction of a house is simply nonsense, this Shenzhou is equivalent to asking difficult days. Unless the central government (local government just is not enough) determined even behind the house. But now look, this possibility is almost zero:
First, Premier Wen Jiabao in early words, Central will not sit prescribing and related business interests,
Second, developers kidnapping the Chinese economy will be The just-concluded China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, China said it would not laissez-faire devaluation, combined with the previous stage to speed up the central coast range of industrial adjustment policies, can be seen, central to judge the situation remains optimistic; Recently, the CBRC Chairman Liu Mil also said that real estate loans in the proportion of China's banking system is very small. This means that developers rely on banks for much less than developers rely on banks. Once future conflicts, the driving effect in the real estate needs and to choose between social stability, according to
again, people are expected to change. Although the local government for their own interests and other considerations, the recent increased efforts to support the real estate, the central government was not interfering, but even shouted, not for real estate, and no means to rescue the market. On the contrary,
paul smith bag, the central and all levels of government also increase the supply of affordable housing, more and more people discover the future availability of adequate, there can not worry about buying a house,
designer handbags online,
Finally, the discussion has not been to China's economic impact on housing prices. Personally feel that it is not simply determine the price impact: the economy improves, house prices will fall; economic downturn, house prices will fall faster and worse. The latter is understandable, the former a brief explanation: prices are in the world economy and China's economy is expected to surge up the context of good (such as US home prices), has long been overdrawn in the future, we are vision (By the way: personal Lin Yifu, vice president of World Bank do not agree with the analysis, he said that the Chinese economy is still the road of industrialization and urbanization, so rapid development but also for 20 years. This conclusion is too optimistic, and the analysis made a low -level errors: two
final conclusion is: In the battle between the prescribing game developers and the people, the people a fundamental change in the position to begin take the initiative,
handbags online cheap, and endurance in support of a more central durable, small and medium business a delay in the results of prescribing only two, or diving flesh, or prescribing provider access to a large disk, but the house will eventually sell, and Chou Xifu sooner or later to see her in-laws, all the houses is a matter of substantial price cuts. (
four, when shot? A: This can act, or the beginning of the second quarter of next year.
Oh, of course, with individual needs. Recently there needs to purchase their own homes concerns the end of the first quarter of next year, the beginning of the second quarter of the price, it should be more reasonable. National 4 trillion investment-driven effects appear after the second quarter, or short-term reminders high prices. If not urgent, can wait over the world economic crisis......
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